Deep Dive Analysis
Spiko EU T-Bills Money Market Fund (EUTBL)
2026-10-19 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.19
1.19
52W HIGH
1.26
1.26
DRAWDOWN
-5.4%
-5.4%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 2 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+, within 10% of high
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (36.8), falling 1m & 3m, strong bear trend (ADX 39.9)
EUTBL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.24
Low: 1.18
Now: 1.19
Low: 1.18
Now: 1.19
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 36.8 | ADX (14) | 39.9 |
| 50d MA | 1.21 | 200d MA | 1.22 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.18 | Resistance | 1.22 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.16%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| EUTBL | -1.3% | -2.9% | -2.0% | -3.9% |
| BTC | -1.0% | +28.2% | +34.6% | +20.2% |
| ETH | -9.5% | +27.2% | +50.1% | +20.4% |
| SOL | -11.1% | +39.1% | +67.3% | +27.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
14,852
RETURN
-1.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-1.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| EUTBL | -1.0% | -3.6% | -1.1% | 18 | 39% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (EUTBL)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -3.9% | 14,463 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -3.0% | 14,550 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -2.5% | 14,631 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -2.2% | 14,664 |
EUTBL Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.19 (-0.3%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-15.9%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-15.9%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-08-27 | SELL | 1.23 | -0.1% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | 1.23 | -0.6% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | 1.23 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-09-02 | SELL | 1.23 | -0.2% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 1.23 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 1.22 | -0.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-19 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
a SELL rating on tokenized t-bills lol, only in crypto media. but honestly -2.9% in a month while BTC did +28, the sting is real
its the 0.16% daily ATR that gets me. this thing barely moves and people still trade it. parking cash near 1.18 support beats deploying 15k into a stage 4 downtrend
lol right. a money market fund in a stage 4 downtrend is a special kind of irony. ADX at 39.9 means the bear trend is actually strong too, not just chop noise
Fair point, but -2.9% on a fund backed by EU t-bills takes real talent. NAV keeps slipping under that 1.18 line, a hedge should not bleed while it sits still
a hedge that bleeds while it sits still is just a fee machine in slow motion. the 0.16% ATR tells you nobody should be trading this thing anyway
ADX 39.9 on tokenized t-bills is my favorite stat of the week. a strong trend, in the wrong direction, on the asset class built to not trend
spiko itself is fine, the strategy is the problem. RSI at 36.8 and price below both the 50d and 200d MA, trend following says stay out. paying fees on top of a -3.9% year, no thanks
agree on staying out but comparing EUTBL -3.9% to SOL +27.4% over 1y is apples to oranges. still, respect the honest AVOID tag instead of the usual hopium
this exactly. paying fees for tokenized t-bills that still lost 3.9% on the year defeats the whole point of a money market product. a plain MMF would have at least held 100
exactly, a plain money market fund holds par and this thing found a way to lose 3.9% on t-bills. tokenization premium doing great work here
exactly this. if i wanted to lose 3.9% holding supposedly safe paper i would just pick worse t-bills myself. 1.19 sitting on a cracking 1.18 floor is not a discount, its a pattern
weird one, t-bills are supposed to be the boring safe corner of a portfolio. price sitting at 1.19 right on top of that 1.18 support, if it breaks there is not much below. i would park the 15k and wait for the 50d to flatten first
15k deployment plan for a product whose whole job is to sit still and it still found a way to bleed lol. need a reclaim of the 50d before this is even a conversation