Deep Dive Analysis
Filecoin (FIL)
2026-10-20 17:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.04
1.04
52W HIGH
8.38
8.38
DRAWDOWN
-87.6%
-87.6%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 5 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.17)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
FIL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.88
Low: 0.61
Now: 1.04
Low: 0.61
Now: 1.04
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 48.7 | ADX (14) | 21.0 |
| 50d MA | 0.98 | 200d MA | 0.87 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.92 | Resistance | 1.26 |
| ATR Volatility | 9.67%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIL | -1.5% | +65.1% | +37.6% | +18.5% |
| BTC | -0.6% | +28.5% | +30.8% | +24.1% |
| ETH | -7.8% | +28.8% | +47.6% | +27.2% |
| SOL | -9.6% | +39.7% | +61.1% | +35.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
14,426
RETURN
-3.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-29.3%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIL | -3.8% | -64.4% | -29.3% | 53 | 49% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIL)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +18.5% | 10,007 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -1.4% | 14,788 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +9.3% | 16,392 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +7.0% | 16,045 |
FIL Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.84 (-19.3%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-4.0%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-4.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.94 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.99 | +5.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 1.05 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 1.14 | +8.4% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.14 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.06 | -6.8% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 1.06 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 1.04 | -1.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 1.03 | +1.4% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 1.07 | |
| END | SELL | 1.04 | -2.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-20 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
trend following on FIL. golden cross and 50d rising, sure, but the chart shows price still miles off the high. system says BUY, my scars say careful lol
the OBV part is doing heavy lifting ngl. MACD still negative, 2 bear factors against 5 bull doesnt scream HIGH conviction to me but ok
kinda agree, though my gripe is the far below high part. deploying 15k into something that bled out for a year takes guts i simply dont have
backtest shows -3.8% over 2 years, 49% win rate, and it still gets a HIGH conviction label lmao. the DCA 12 buys row at +9.3% is the honest part of this piece
49% win rate and -3.8% over 2 years, and HIGH conviction is right there in the banner lol. the DCA 12 buys row at +9.3% is carrying the whole backtest on its back
the DCA row is the only honest signal in the whole table. 12 scheduled buys beats timing it every time, even on a token down 87 percent from the high
the DCA row being the only green line is just how trend systems look averaged out. HIGH conviction label still feels generous on a 49% win rate
I run a similar system and the volume ratio of 1.17 is the detail that matters here. Accumulation with OBV rising is decent confirmation for a trend entry.
25% of the portfolio on one signal with a -3.8% backtest is bold, id size the first tranche way smaller
Agreed on the sizing. But deploy in 2 tranches with a 25% cash buffer already halves the effective exposure, so it is closer to 12% real risk.
smaller tranches just mean you buy higher if the setup works. system gives you the stop at 0.84, honor it and the sizing argument mostly goes away
stop discipline doing the heavy lifting as usual. 0.84 under a rising 200d is the only reason HIGH conviction doesn’t read as cope on a 49 percent win rate
two tranches with the buffer is basically 12 percent real risk like Karin said above. at a 0.84 stop that is acceptable tuition if the setup fails
storage demand on Filecoin is quietly picking back up, the trend crew catching this one before the crowd for once
Quietly is doing a lot of work there. Program onboarding has to convert to paid deals before the token cares, but closing at 1.04 above a 200d of 0.87 is real structure at least.
the 200d at 0.87 vs close 1.04 is doing all the heavy lifting here. if that breaks the whole setup is toast, stop at 0.84 makes sense
agree on the 200d doing the heavy lifting. stop at 0.84 is barely a cushion below it, one ugly candle through 0.87 and theres no setup left to defend
onboarding to paid conversion is the whole game. if those storage deals renew next quarter at market rates the 1.04 close is cheap. if not its back to 0.60
deal renewal at market rates is the metric to watch, agreed. onboarding subsidies made FIL look alive in 2021 and it was borrowing demand from the future
renewals at market rates is the only stat that matters and nobody publishes it monthly. until then every FIL rally stays suspect
renewal data exists if you dig through the Filecoin Plus stats, and the trend is not encouraging. agreed the 1.04 close does not answer that question
storage deals picking up is nice but paid deals are the metric that matters. onboarding programs padded those numbers before, been burned trusting them twice
resistance at 1.26 is over 20% away and ADX is only 21, trend is thin imo. stop at 0.84 gives decent risk on a first tranche though
resistance at 1.26 is over 20% away from the 1.04 close, thats the real story here. golden cross is fine but the room to run is why id take the first tranche
1.04 close with the 200d at 0.87 is the tightest structure FIL has printed in two years. small first tranche, stop at 0.84, this is a clean setup on a messy chart