Deep Dive Analysis
Flare (FLR)
2026-09-17 10:30 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.04
0.04
DRAWDOWN
-83.5%
-83.5%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: strong bull trend (ADX 36.3)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (44.9), falling 1m & 3m, far below high
FLR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 44.9 | ADX (14) | 36.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.48%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FLR | -6.0% | -5.2% | -22.9% | -44.4% |
| BTC | -4.8% | +19.7% | -5.3% | -15.6% |
| ETH | -2.9% | +30.8% | +4.7% | -21.0% |
| SOL | -8.5% | +32.8% | +7.3% | -26.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
8,000
RETURN
-33.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-35.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FLR | -33.3% | -52.3% | -35.9% | 47 | 38% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FLR)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -44.4% | 3,187 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -38.9% | 7,334 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -39.2% | 7,297 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -35.1% | 7,787 |
FLR Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-9.0%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-02 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-03 | SELL | 0.01 | +3.4% |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.1% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 0.01 | -1.6% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 0.01 | -5.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-17 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
the single bull factor is ADX 36.3, meaning the trend is strong. the trend is straight down. thanks system, very reassuring
ADX 36.3 on a downtrend is the most honest line in the whole factor table. the system basically told on itself
83.5% drawdown from the high and the system still says AVOID. that takes discipline. i held flr all through 2022 wishing i had rules like this
the 38% win rate is wild. system lost a third of the portfolio and that is STILL better than buy and hold losing half. stats here are brutal
38% win rate scalps beating hold by 19 points is the most backtest flavored stat ive ever seen. show me the slippage on those entries
ran similar scalps on flr pairs last month, slippage ate about a third of the edge on market orders. limit entries only or dont bother
he addressed it, limit entries only on the FLR pairs. slippage on a 0.01 token with 4.5% ATR is criminal on market orders
limit only works until a 4.5% ATR candle blows straight through your level and you never fill. flr scalping charges you either way
0.01 now, 0.04 for the 52w high. that is a 4x just to visit the old top. even the SELL label feels generous for flr
4x just to revisit the old top, with an 83.5% drawdown behind it. the SELL label is generous, avoid would be my word
and that 4x assumes the old top holds as resistance. flr hasnt printed a higher low since the 0.04 days, SELL is generous
flr at 0.01 with 7 bear factors vs 1 bull. that aint a dip thats a falling knife convention
falling knife convention lmao. 50d falling + death cross + RSI 44.9, literally nothing here to catch
falling knife convention lmao is right. 7 bear factors and the single bull factor is just trend strong. strong in which direction my guy
trend strong in the direction that takes your money lmao. 7 to 1 bear factors and the comments still have knife catchers, every chart needs its volunteers
the single bull factor is ADX 36.3 on a downtrend. trend strong in the only direction flr knows, the system was being polite with SELL
knives pay rent when ATR is 4.5% a day tho. those scalps in the trade log only won 38% of the time and still beat holding by 19 points
scalping a coin with 4.5 percent daily ATR at a 38 pct win rate is a dopamine subscription, not a strategy. that 19 point edge is one bad fill from gone
dopamine subscription is the most accurate description of flr scalping ive ever read. and the 19 point edge assumes your limit fills during a 4.5% ATR candle
the slippage point is underrated. a 0.01 token means spread alone can eat a percent before the trade even starts
spread plus 4.5% ATR candles means your limit either never fills or fills exactly when you dont want it. zero sum arcade
one bad fill is optimistic. at a 38% win rate most fills are bad fills, the whole edge lives in the exit discipline
83.5% drawdown and the headline stat is that active trading only lost a third. grim math when losing 33% is framed as the success path