Deep Dive Analysis
Hedera (HBAR)
2026-10-08 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.09
0.09
52W HIGH
0.40
0.40
DRAWDOWN
-77.7%
-77.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 7 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 52.4), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.66)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
HBAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.10
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.09
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.09
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 46.2 | ADX (14) | 52.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.09 | 200d MA | 0.08 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.07 | Resistance | 0.13 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.71%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HBAR | +19.6% | +30.9% | -6.0% | -9.4% |
| BTC | +8.2% | +28.6% | +12.0% | -1.8% |
| ETH | +3.4% | +33.0% | +25.3% | -6.4% |
| SOL | +10.7% | +54.9% | +36.2% | -4.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
21,113
RETURN
+40.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HBAR | +40.8% | -53.4% | -31.5% | 53 | 45% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HBAR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -9.4% | 6,278 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -14.1% | 12,878 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -9.3% | 13,603 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -8.6% | 13,715 |
HBAR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.08 (-15.4%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.09 | +2.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 0.09 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 0.12 | +27.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 0.10 | +2.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 0.10 | -0.2% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| END | SELL | 0.09 | -12.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-08 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
ADX 52.4 with price still 77% off the high, thats the only stat here that matters imo. trend signal on HBAR finally worth a look
A 40.8% backtest return sounds nice until you see the -31.5% max drawdown. Most people would have tapped out long before the strategy recovered.
^ this. ran similar MA crossover stuff on alts in 2024, the drawdowns on the death cross exits brutalize you. RSI filter helps tho
resistance at 0.13 basically 40% upside from 0.09, vs support only 0.07. risk reward not bad if the uptrend holds tbh
77% down from the 0.40 high and this prints a HIGH conviction buy? the ADX 52 trend is real, i give you that, but 0.13 resistance has been a wall before
stop at 0.08 is -15.4% on a coin with 7.7% daily ATR. two bad candles and you’re out lol. tight risk for a ‘strong bull trend’
the backtest table is the honest part here. lump sum got destroyed while DCA with 12 buys is only down 8.6%. that tells you everything about buying a downtrend bounce