Deep Dive Analysis
Hedera (HBAR)
2026-10-16 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.09
0.09
52W HIGH
0.40
0.40
DRAWDOWN
-78.7%
-78.7%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 4 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.38)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, MACD-, RSI weak (43.1), far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 33.5)
HBAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.09
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.09
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.09
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 43.1 | ADX (14) | 33.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.09 | 200d MA | 0.08 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.07 | Resistance | 0.13 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.71%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HBAR | -10.5% | +29.9% | +4.4% | -5.0% |
| BTC | -2.6% | +30.0% | +29.4% | +18.1% |
| ETH | -8.7% | +30.6% | +45.6% | +17.5% |
| SOL | -13.5% | +40.0% | +59.1% | +20.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
46,583
RETURN
+33.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HBAR | +33.1% | -51.5% | -31.5% | 53 | 45% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HBAR)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -5.0% | 18,390 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -12.9% | 30,481 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -9.4% | 31,701 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -8.9% | 31,874 |
HBAR Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.07 (-13.4%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.09 | +2.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 0.09 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 0.12 | +27.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 0.10 | +2.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 0.10 | -0.2% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-10-14 | SELL | 0.08 | -17.2% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-16 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Down 78% from the 0.40 high and the verdict is still just WAIT. Harsh but honestly fair, hbar has given no edge since the top
^ same boat as you. Stage 1 bottoming at 0.09 at least means most of the damage is done. Famous last words probably
4 bull vs 5 bear factors and the verdict is WAIT not SELL. thats the system admitting a stage 1 bottom looks identical to a dead cat bounce until the 50d flips
bought at 0.31 in the euphoria. dont wanna talk about it lol. holding till the council ships something people actually use
0.31 to 0.09 hurts but OBV climbing with a 1.38 volume ratio is the first real accumulation signal on hbar in a year. not adding, just not leaving either
the council shipped supply chain stuff years ago and nobody blinked. at 0.09 the bar is low enough that any real usage print moves it
RSI at 43 with ADX 33.5 means trend followers get chopped in both directions here. sitting out until price reclaims the 50d is the only position with actual edge
the 50d reclaim crew misses the first leg every time by design. fine trade, but its the most crowded signal on hbar, not hidden edge
78 pct drawdown and the verdict is WAIT instead of average down. when holding feels like a personality trait you know where in the cycle we are