Deep Dive Analysis
Internet Computer (ICP)
2026-10-18 10:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
2.91
2.91
52W HIGH
15.56
15.56
DRAWDOWN
-81.3%
-81.3%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, MACD-, RSI weak (44.1), far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.83)
ICP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 2.42
Low: 1.98
Now: 2.91
Low: 1.98
Now: 2.91
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 44.1 | ADX (14) | 20.4 |
| 50d MA | 2.95 | 200d MA | 2.54 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 2.75 | Resistance | 3.60 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.48%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ICP | -7.5% | +28.9% | +27.4% | +20.3% |
| BTC | -3.4% | +29.9% | +32.3% | +16.3% |
| ETH | -10.4% | +28.4% | +46.9% | +14.4% |
| SOL | -15.6% | +38.2% | +58.6% | +18.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
9,721
RETURN
-35.2%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-54.8%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ICP | -35.2% | -37.1% | -54.8% | 72 | 43% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ICP)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +20.3% | 14,224 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +6.6% | 15,996 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +14.1% | 17,110 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +7.2% | 16,075 |
ICP Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 2.48 (-15.0%) |
| Target 1 | 3.00 (3.1%) |
| Target 2 | 4.00 (37.4%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-09 | BUY | 2.78 | |
| 2026-09-10 | SELL | 2.81 | +1.0% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 2.72 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 2.73 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-13 | BUY | 2.76 | |
| 2026-09-14 | SELL | 2.74 | -0.5% |
| 2026-09-15 | BUY | 2.48 | |
| 2026-09-16 | SELL | 2.57 | +3.5% |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | 2.63 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 2.86 | +8.6% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 2.86 | |
| 2026-10-17 | SELL | 2.93 | +2.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-18 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
low conviction hold with 5 of 8 factors bearish is basically a no-trade signal dressed up. fine by me, capital preservation
low conviction hold feels right. below the 50d at 2.95 with 5 bear factors against 3 bulls, no edge here
down 81% from 15.56 and the label is still just bottoming. been hearing stage 1 narratives on icp for years now
agreed, the stage 1 label has been doing a lot of heavy lifting here. 5 bear factors vs 3 bulls and it still reads as accumulating
tbf the 3 month print is +28.9%, it is moving. but rsi 44 and stuck under 2.95, not deploying into that either
fair, but a +28.9% quarter off the lows still gets faded at the first 2.95 tap. needs a daily close above it before anyone chases