Deep Dive Analysis
JUST (JST)
2026-10-04 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.14
0.14
52W HIGH
0.14
0.14
DRAWDOWN
-0.2%
-0.2%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 0 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, rising 1m & 3m, near 52w high, strong bull trend (ADX 28.0), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.91)
JST Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.05
Low: 0.03
Now: 0.14
Low: 0.03
Now: 0.14
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 74.9 | ADX (14) | 28.0 |
| 50d MA | 0.11 | 200d MA | 0.09 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.10 | Resistance | 0.14 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.39%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| JST | +23.4% | +31.4% | +49.0% | +197.0% |
| BTC | +10.8% | +34.1% | +12.3% | -3.5% |
| ETH | +9.1% | +43.5% | +30.4% | -7.7% |
| SOL | +22.0% | +64.8% | +44.8% | -2.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
80,236
RETURN
+129.2%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-37.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| JST | +129.2% | +339.4% | -37.5% | 48 | 48% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (JST)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +197.0% | 148,638 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +184.5% | 99,569 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +169.6% | 94,377 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +162.2% | 91,775 |
JST Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.12 (-14.0%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.73) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-01-21 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-01-27 | SELL | 0.04 | -9.8% |
| 2026-01-28 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-02-03 | SELL | 0.04 | -8.5% |
| 2026-02-07 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-02-12 | SELL | 0.04 | -3.2% |
| 2026-02-16 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-06-03 | SELL | 0.07 | +71.7% |
| 2026-06-28 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-08-24 | SELL | 0.10 | +13.9% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| END | SELL | 0.14 | +35.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-04 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
JST at 0.14 and thats a fresh 52 week high? dropping 35k into strength is bold, i hope oliver sized that in tranches
real talk, split the 35k into three tranches at least. if 0.14 is the top of the range one flat entry hurts bad
three tranches is the move. ADX at 28 and vol ratio 1.91 says the trend is real, but entering all 35k at the exact 52w high is asking for pain
A BUY rating on a token sitting exactly at its 52 week high makes me nervous. Tron ecosystem tokens have a habit of rounding on people who chase.
fair point on tron tokens rounding on people, but 9 bull factors and zero bear is about as clean as these signals get. i would size smaller rather than skip it
grandpa gets it. last tron token i bought at a fresh 52w high rounded on me inside a month. hope oliver sized tranches not vibes
price 0.14, 52w high 0.14, drawdown basically nothing. either this just went vertical or the chart is being polite lol
drawdown under 1% only shows up right after a vertical move. buying 0.14 here is chasing the entry candle, tranches or nothing
this. the whole signal is one vertical candle. anyone buying 0.14 here is the exit liquidity for the 0.10 crowd
OBV rising with volume ratio near 2, someone is accumulating quietly. held since 0.09 and this is the first signal that actually matches the chart
obv can also just be coins moving between related wallets tho, you cant tell who is actually accumulating from that line alone
exactly, obv counts transfers between your own wallets as accumulation too. one look at exchange netflow would settle this whole thread
one man risk gets repeated in every JST thread and its still true every time. backtest says +129% but 48 trades and half losers, the edge is 2 winners that ran
48 trades with the edge riding two winners is the real tell here. still took a small tranche at 0.138 because fomo is a disease, but sized like the backtest owes me proof
0.138 was the disciplined tranche and i still watched the wick from the sidelines. 48 trades with half losers means the whole edge is two runners, no thanks
half of 48 trades losing and still +129 percent backtest, three winners carried the whole thing. position size small and it works
9 bull factors and zero bear on a token this correlated to one man tells me the model never priced governance risk. half size and i get it
nobody is pricing in that justin sun owns the exchange, the chain, and a fat chunk of JST supply. chart can look as clean as it wants, thats one man risk
this. its basically a bet on one guy not waking up grumpy. i still hold a bag from 0.11 but no way im adding at the top of the wick
you can hedge a chart, you cant hedge justin waking up grumpy. one dev wallet moving would eat the whole 35k plan
dev wallet line gets said every JST thread because its true every JST thread. 48 trade backtest means nothing against one announcement tweet
backtests on tron tokens are basically biographies of two tweets. the 48 trade sample is at least honest about it
one grumpy morning and the 35k plan is a memorial. i sold half my jst at 0.14 exactly for that reason, no hedge exists for key man risk
key man risk on a chart blog is hilarious. oliver is posting disciplined entries on a token where one guy controls the float
the one man risk chart is why position size is the only edge here. keep the tranche under 5 percent of book and justin can wake up as grumpy as he wants
whole 35k plan lives or dies on that 0.14 wick holding. watch the level, the scorecard is decoration