Deep Dive Analysis
JUST (JST)
2026-10-11 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.14
0.14
52W HIGH
0.14
0.14
DRAWDOWN
-5.4%
-5.4%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (59.1), rising 1m & 3m, within 10% of high, strong bull trend (ADX 27.1), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.41)
Bearish factors: MACD bear cross
JST Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.04
Low: 0.03
Now: 0.14
Low: 0.03
Now: 0.14
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 59.1 | ADX (14) | 27.1 |
| 50d MA | 0.12 | 200d MA | 0.09 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.11 | Resistance | 0.14 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.65%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| JST | +19.3% | +34.2% | +45.7% | +220.9% |
| BTC | +2.3% | +28.1% | +24.5% | +5.5% |
| ETH | -5.2% | +31.3% | +34.9% | +6.9% |
| SOL | -1.3% | +43.9% | +47.9% | +5.0% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
28,565
RETURN
+90.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-37.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| JST | +90.4% | +260.7% | -37.5% | 45 | 49% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (JST)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +220.9% | 64,633 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +169.1% | 40,372 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +165.0% | 39,750 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +147.0% | 37,054 |
JST Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.13 (-7.3%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-01-21 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-01-27 | SELL | 0.04 | -9.8% |
| 2026-01-28 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-02-03 | SELL | 0.04 | -8.5% |
| 2026-02-07 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-02-12 | SELL | 0.04 | -3.2% |
| 2026-02-16 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-06-03 | SELL | 0.07 | +71.7% |
| 2026-06-28 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-08-24 | SELL | 0.10 | +13.9% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| END | SELL | 0.14 | +31.9% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-11 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
nine bullish factors vs one bearish MACD cross and half the replies here are still calling it a coin flip lol
my problem with jst isnt the trend its the exit. bid depth at these levels is a rumor, try selling size into 0.14 and see what happens
the backtest literally sat through a -37.5% drawdown and still only did 90% vs 260% buy and hold. trend following jst is just paying spread to underperform
90 vs 260 is the honest cost of drawdown insurance. most people bail at minus 20 anyway, trend following just makes the pain scheduled
the -37.5% drawdown stat is doing more work than any signal column in that table lol
this. everyone models the entry, nobody models the exit. wide spreads at 0.14 mean your stop fills 10 percent lower
jst up 220% on the year and its literally sitting at its 52 week high of 0.14. resistance IS the current price lol
true but in a trend this strong every stall at resistance has just been a bull flag. i care more about OBV still climbing than the exact price
breakout math on a 0.14 token is wild, one 15 percent wick and the whole 52w high narrative rewrites itself overnight
Nine bullish factors against one bearish MACD cross is about as clean as these signals get. Entering at the 52-week high takes nerve though, support is 21% down at 0.11.
Support 21% down sounds scary until you realize the 0.11 floor has been tested twice already and held both times. Sizing matters more than the entry here.
Twice is a small sample and those tests were on a third of the volume. If BTC sneezes that floor gets one real test, agree on sizing though.
a floor tested on a third of the volume is a floor in theory. sizing small enough to survive being wrong is the whole trade
buying at the high is fine when ADX is 27 and OBV keeps climbing, thats literally the whole point of trend following. you give back the last 10%, not 50
you give back 10% on liquid names. on jst with spreads this wide youre giving back 15 before your market order even fills
OBV climbing with vol ratio 1.41 is nice but look at the trade log, the whole year came down to one June move from 0.04 to 0.07
backtest worship is wild. one June candle from 0.04 to 0.07 carrying the whole year means the edge is liquidity timing, not the strategy
49% win rate on 45 trades and everyone in here is debating the entry. the stop at 0.13 is doing all the work, not the signal lol
49 percent is genuinely fine for trend systems, the math only works because losses are flat and winners run. the stop discipline is the signal, people just want to feel smart about entries
45 trades is not nothing though. most strategies people run live dont have half that sample before they go full size
45 trades is decent until you notice nine of them are June. sample of one regime, id trust it more after a chop year
wide spread small cap trend following is mostly an exercise in paying market makers. the backtest includes fills that real books at 0.14 will not give you when it matters
the fills point cant be overstated, the backtest assumes mid price entries on a 0.14 token with a spread thats basically a toll booth. live results start red by construction
mid price entries on a 0.14 small cap is the classic backtest lie. the spread alone eats the first 5 percent, live deployment starts in a hole by design