Deep Dive Analysis
Jupiter (JUP)
2026-09-16 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.56
0.56
DRAWDOWN
-99.9%
-99.9%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 5 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD bull cross, RSI healthy (50.6)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 71.3), vol 7.74x on down day, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.01)
JUP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 50.6 | ADX (14) | 71.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 47.67%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| JUP | -15.5% | +12.3% | +2.3% | -56.0% |
| BTC | -4.3% | +16.9% | -5.7% | -16.9% |
| ETH | -4.7% | +24.6% | +3.5% | -23.1% |
| SOL | -5.1% | +25.5% | +5.5% | -29.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
0
RETURN
-100.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| JUP | -100.0% | -47.8% | -100.0% | 51 | 33% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (JUP)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -56.0% | 4,215 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -18.2% | 12,270 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +339.0% | 65,852 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +326.7% | 64,001 |
JUP Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (-94.7%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-26 | SELL | 0.00 | +1.7% |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-28 | SELL | 0.00 | -6.2% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | 0.00 | +1.3% |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 0.00 | -97.6% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-10 | SELL | 0.00 | -97.3% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| END | SELL | 0.00 | -7.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-16 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
forget the buggy drawdown widget, the honest read is jup up 12.3 over 3 months while sol did 25.5. lagging your own chain is the real conviction killer
lagging sol while running most of its volume is bad but 12.3 against btc 16.9 is basically beta one. the LST vote disappointment is the real story nobody trades around
its worse when you remember jup is supposed to be the flagship dex token of that chain. sol did 25.5 and the token could not even hold half that, LST votes or no LST votes
the 12.3 vs 25.5 sol gap stings but jup still prints fees while lts like pump fun tokens bleed to zero. staged entries under 0.4 seems fair for the flagship dex
lagging your own chain by 13 points while running the biggest aggregator on it is rough. the LST votes never showed up in the token either
golden cross and MACD bull cross on the bull side, ADX 71.3 screaming bear trend on the other. no wonder the conviction is LOW lol
when ADX is that high the regime usually wins, crosses are lagging indicators. would trust the 71.3 over the golden cross here
agree the 71.3 ADX dominates, but golden crosses inside strong trend regimes are exactly how you get chopped entering early. LOW conviction is the only honest label here
agree on trusting 71.3 over the cross, but readings that extreme after a long run are also where exhaustion starts. either way HOLD with staged entries is the only call the data supports
Staged entries only work if the price feed is real though. I would want the table showing an actual price before deploying the 15,000 anywhere near those levels.
the 0.00 is just the widget failing, actual jup price is on every aggregator. but yeah staging 15k into a token that cant outpace its own chain needs more than LOW conviction
golden cross on the daily with ADX at 71.3, pick one. when trend strength is that extreme the cross usually shows up right before exhaustion
-99.9% drawdown from a 0.56 high and it still says Stage 2 Uptrend. these auto ratings need a sanity check on the inputs
price feed shows 0.00 and the whole rating chain just ran with it, -99.9% drawdown included. garbage in garbage out
this. price showing 0.00 means the entire drawdown row auto generated nonsense. someone rerun the table before arguing about adx at all
even with a clean price feed the call would be the same, WAIT. five bull factors against five bear factors is the definition of no edge
rerun the table, sure, but the ADX 71.3 came from a different feed than the price widget and still holds. the bug doesnt change the staged entry logic under 0.4
up 12.3% over 3 months while btc did 16.9 and sol 25.5. jup bagholders cant even win in an up market
coping but also factual. jup up 12.3% while sol did 25.5% over the same window is rough for the flagship dex token of that chain
lagging sol by 13 points while running most of the volume thru your own dex is the part that stings. the LST votes were supposed to fix value accrual and just didnt
12.3 vs 16.9 for btc over 3 months is not even that dramatic for an alt in a chop phase. plenty of solana ecosystem tokens did far worse against both benchmarks
same reaction. a -99.9 pct drawdown next to Stage 2 Uptrend reads like a bug report. someone check what price feed is feeding that widget, price even shows 0.00
deployment plan asks you to stage entries while the table shows a 0.00 price and a -99.9 drawdown. i would paper trade this template for a week before trusting any of the levels
golden cross and ADX 71.3 printed in the same table, pick one. whichever wins the argument, LOW conviction is the only defensible label the template could put out here
the table literally shows price 0.00 feeding that -99.9 row. fix the feed first, then argue about whether ADX 71.3 or the golden cross matters
the 0.00 row discredits the table, sure, but the lst point above is the one nobody answers. jup lags the chain it aggregates and the vote accrual never showed up in the token
staged entries under 0.4 off a broken price widget is bold. if the feed prints 0.00 who says the adx 71.3 came from a working one, deploy after the data is trustworthy