Kaspa (KAS) Analysis: HOLD — 35,000 Deployment Plan

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Deep Dive Analysis

Kaspa (KAS)

2026-10-20 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.04
52W HIGH
0.19
DRAWDOWN
-81.5%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)

🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 5 Bear Factors

Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising

Bearish factors: price < 50d, MACD-, RSI weak (38.3), far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.66)

KAS Price — 1 Year

1Y Ago: 0.03
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.04

Technical Snapshot

RSI (14) 38.3 ADX (14) 24.4
50d MA 0.04 200d MA 0.03
Price vs 50d ▼ Below Price vs 200d ▲ Above
Support 0.03 Resistance 0.05
ATR Volatility 6.9%/day Trend HOLD

Crypto Performance Comparison

KAS+38.4%target+38.4%BTC+25.8%ETH+24.3%SOL+35.2%

Asset 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year
KAS -18.4% +38.4% +12.6% +11.2%
BTC -2.7% +25.8% +28.1% +21.5%
ETH -11.0% +24.3% +42.5% +22.8%
SOL -12.5% +35.2% +55.8% +31.4%

Trend-Following Backtest

2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.

35,000 initial

FINAL VALUE
18,060
RETURN
-48.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-52.1%

Strategy vs Buy & Hold

Asset Strategy Buy & Hold Max DD Trades Win Rate
KAS -48.4% -64.7% -52.1% 50 46%

DCA vs Lump Sum (KAS)

If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.

Strategy Return Value Today
Lump Sum (1y ago) +11.2% 23,677
DCA — 4 buys -5.2% 33,194
DCA — 6 buys +2.0% 35,698
DCA — 12 buys +0.8% 35,269

KAS Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio

Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:

Position size 5,250 (15% of portfolio)
Stop loss 0.03 (-13.8%)
Target 1 0.00 (-100.0%)
Target 2 0.00 (-100.0%)
Entry quality Pullback
Max concurrent positions 10

Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.

Backtest Trade Log

Date Action Price P&L
2026-09-16 BUY 0.03
2026-09-17 SELL 0.03 +2.3%
2026-09-18 BUY 0.04
2026-09-19 SELL 0.04 +3.1%
2026-09-20 BUY 0.04
2026-09-21 SELL 0.04 +8.3%
2026-09-22 BUY 0.04
2026-09-23 SELL 0.04 -7.5%
2026-09-24 BUY 0.04
2026-09-25 SELL 0.04 +5.7%
2026-09-26 BUY 0.05
2026-10-14 SELL 0.04 -22.6%

Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-20 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

26 thoughts on “Kaspa (KAS) Analysis: HOLD — 35,000 Deployment Plan”

  1. coldstart_77

    81.5% off the high and still holding above the 200d. kas is one of the few l1s where the fomo crowd actually fully left, that alone makes it more interesting than most

    Reply
    1. Nils R.

      holding the 200d on what volume though. the system counts 3 bull factors vs 5 bear, that reads like a bounce inside a downtrend, not a stage 1 bottom

      Reply
      1. solo_stake_

        nils fair on the factor count but holding the 200d this long at 81.5 percent off is not your usual dead cat. im staging bids around 0.10 instead of chasing strength

        Reply
        1. dca_dad

          bids at 0.10 with the 200d still holding is greedy but respect it. if it reclaims 0.05 on real volume im paying up, the 0.66 ratio tells me there is barely anything to buy anyway

          Reply
        2. kvist_92

          staging bids at 0.10 when this thing prints 0.04 feels like waiting for a gift. rsi 38 stacked on 5 bear factors says the 200d gets retested at least once before any real reversal

          Reply
          1. gudbrand_

            rsi 38 has been the default state for kas all year tho. the 0.10 bids are a meme, the 200d holding at 0.04 is the only actual fact in here

          2. hexbelt_

            0.10 bids feel like hopium but respect having a plan. im more worried the 200d breaks and 0.03 becomes the conversation

        3. kasper_offramp

          respect the plan but 0.10 bids on something printing 0.04 is a 2.5x fill you never get without full capitulation. if the 200d gives way first those bids just became the top of the next range

          Reply
          1. sawtooth_tim

            0.04 printing 0.10 basically requires a btc leg to six figures dragging everything. at that point your limit order was the least necessary part of the trade

    2. mikko_h

      fully left is doing a lot of work there lol. every kas holder i know is just underwater and quiet, which is a different thing from capitulated

      Reply
        1. hashgrim_

          0.16 gang checking in, hello from the other side of that -81.5% drawdown lol. at 0.04 the 35k plan is basically a lottery ticket on ghostdag 2.0 ever shipping

          Reply
      2. Tomasz B.

        Underwater and quiet since 0.12 here. The volume ratio at 0.66 confirms it, nobody is selling because nobody is buying either.

        Reply
        1. Minji C.

          same boat since 0.14 tomasz. the 0.66 volume ratio cuts both ways tho, no sellers means the bounce needs almost nothing to actually move

          Reply
        2. Aune L.

          the 0.66 volume ratio with price pinned at 0.04 is the quiet part nobody prices. ghostdag can push throughput all day, with no orderbook depth the whole hold thesis lives or dies on that 200d

          Reply
        3. Ola Fj.

          the nobody selling nobody buying line is the most honest read in this thread. a 0.66 volume ratio is just mutual silence

          Reply
          1. Tove R.

            mutual silence is the right name for it. the first real volume candle either direction will be violent, nobody is positioned

  2. Peter Onu

    The golden cross with the 50d rising is the only thing keeping me from calling this dead money. GhostDAG itself works fine, the missing piece has always been developers actually shipping on it.

    Reply
      1. sandshifter_

        apps wont fix a token down 80 percent from 0.19. devs ship where the liquidity is and kas order books are ghost town quiet right now

        Reply
    2. blockdag_bella

      ghostdag throughput is real but peter the 5 bear factors incl RSI 38 are the story rn. devs dont ship into an 81.5 percent drawdown

      Reply
    3. Vilma K.

      ghostdag throughput stopped being the pitch to lead with years ago. block time means nothing to an app developer choosing between kas and a chain with actual users and fee revenue

      Reply
      1. dag_lurker

        app developers were never the buyer for kas tho, miners were. blockdag pays out in throughput and hashrate kept climbing straight through the 81 percent drawdown

        Reply
  3. siltfen

    5 bear factors and a hold rating is a polite way of saying dont add. been here since ghostdag was the whole pitch, still waiting

    Reply
  4. ChartHermit

    deploying 35k into a book with a 0.66 volume ratio is the brave part. thin books mean exit is the problem, not entry, ask anyone who tried to size out of kas in a hurry

    Reply

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