Deep Dive Analysis
Chainlink (LINK)
2026-09-06 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
12.29
12.29
52W HIGH
30.81
30.81
DRAWDOWN
-60.1%
-60.1%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (69.4), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 60.1), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.29)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
LINK Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 12.29
Low: 7.02
Now: 12.29
Low: 7.02
Now: 12.29
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 69.4 | ADX (14) | 60.1 |
| 50d MA | 9.67 | 200d MA | 9.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 8.16 | Resistance | 12.56 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.31%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| LINK | +31.0% | +52.6% | +33.0% | +0.0% |
| BTC | +27.0% | +25.6% | +4.5% | -8.4% |
| ETH | +33.1% | +39.9% | +9.0% | -15.0% |
| SOL | +41.0% | +29.1% | +25.0% | -14.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
15,284
RETURN
+1.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-37.8%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| LINK | +1.9% | -20.5% | -37.8% | 63 | 44% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (LINK)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +0.0% | 8,207 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +11.2% | 16,673 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +7.6% | 16,145 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +13.9% | 17,082 |
LINK Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 11.13 (-9.4%) |
| Target 1 | 14.00 (13.9%) |
| Target 2 | 14.00 (13.9%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.37) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | 8.29 | |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | 8.77 | +5.8% |
| 2026-08-12 | BUY | 8.67 | |
| 2026-08-13 | SELL | 8.87 | +2.3% |
| 2026-08-14 | BUY | 8.97 | |
| 2026-08-15 | SELL | 9.46 | +5.5% |
| 2026-08-16 | BUY | 9.38 | |
| 2026-08-17 | SELL | 9.54 | +1.6% |
| 2026-08-18 | BUY | 9.54 | |
| 2026-08-19 | SELL | 10.54 | +10.6% |
| 2026-08-25 | BUY | 11.28 | |
| END | SELL | 12.29 | +8.9% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-06 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
rsi 69.4 and they still call it a buy. brave, tho tbf the adx 60.1 trend is genuinely strong
@martin adx that high usually means the move is mature tbh, not fresh. still long tho, macd flipping is the next trigger
The DCA table is the real story here. Lump sum flat over a year while 4 buys did 11.2 percent. Timing still matters even in an uptrend.
60 percent off the 30.81 high with a golden cross finally printing. this is the part where im always too scared to buy lol
RSI at 69.4 and they call this a fresh deploy signal? im long link from 9.80 but buying right under resistance at 12.56 is a brave entry
+52.6% vs btc +25.6% and still 60% off the 30.81 high. feels like 2019 link again, the ccip narrative has legs
60% off the 30.81 high with ccip revenue actually growing, doesnt smell like top formation. just not thrilled about entering with rsi at 69
resistance is 12.56 and price is 12.29, you are basically buying the ceiling. waiting for a retest of the 9.67 50d myself
9.67 retest would be a gift at this point. the 11.40 tranche already absorbed the sellers, might just never give you that fill
the 15k deployment plan splits entries tho, its not one shot at 12.29. check the tranches, first one already filled near 11.40
MACD bearish is one of the two bear factors and its still HIGH conviction? ADX 60.1 means the trend is mature, late stage move imo
fresh deploy signal and ADX 60 in the same writeup, kinda funny. watching the 4h macd flip while price holds 12 tells you more than the lagging daily imo