Deep Dive Analysis
PAX Gold (PAXG)
2026-10-17 10:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
4155.68
4155.68
52W HIGH
5622.81
5622.81
DRAWDOWN
-26.1%
-26.1%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (43.0), falling 1m & 3m, strong bear trend (ADX 28.6), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.75)
PAXG Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 5042.53
Low: 2549.64
Now: 4155.68
Low: 2549.64
Now: 4155.68
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 43.0 | ADX (14) | 28.6 |
| 50d MA | 4278.77 | 200d MA | 4363.38 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 4084.52 | Resistance | 4390.42 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.15%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| PAXG | -2.9% | -5.0% | -3.5% | -17.6% |
| BTC | -3.3% | +29.5% | +29.3% | +16.1% |
| ETH | -9.8% | +29.2% | +43.8% | +16.4% |
| SOL | -13.7% | +39.3% | +56.9% | +20.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
18,076
RETURN
+20.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-12.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| PAXG | +20.5% | +24.1% | -12.4% | 36 | 42% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (PAXG)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -17.6% | 14,685 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -5.3% | 14,202 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -7.6% | 13,861 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -6.6% | 14,017 |
PAXG Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 4059.78 (-2.3%) |
| Target 1 | 4276.00 (2.9%) |
| Target 2 | 4347.00 (4.6%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | 4447.16 | |
| 2026-09-01 | SELL | 4339.46 | -2.4% |
| 2026-09-02 | BUY | 4393.14 | |
| 2026-09-03 | SELL | 4479.80 | +2.0% |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | 4432.97 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 4432.44 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 4420.90 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 4421.69 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 4355.55 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 4393.83 | +0.9% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 4354.67 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 4354.55 | -0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-17 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
weird seeing a hard SELL on a gold token while spot keeps grinding. the death cross argument is fine i guess but people dont trade PAXG like a trend asset, its a parking lot for when charts look like this
parking lot with a death cross lmao. just buy bars at that point
parking lot framing only works if you ignore the 26% slide from 5622. premiums on physical run what, 2-3% over spot? ill take the bar and skip the chart anxiety
1 bull factor against 8 bear and the single bull is just MACD? hard pass until it reclaims the 200d, this looks like the middle of a move not the end
^ this. RSI 43 on something that is supposed to track gold kinda defeats the whole point of holding the token over the metal
OBV distribution with a 0.75 volume ratio is the part that worries me most. someone is exiting quietly and ADX 28.6 says the downtrend has real legs
middle of a move is right. ADX 28.6 with price pinned under the 50d at 4278, support at 4084 is the level. lose that and 4000 comes fast
system flipped SELL on the sept 12 cross at 4354 and price is 4155 now, so the signal paid for itself. meanwhile BTC did +29% in 3 months while PAXG did -5. gold tokens are where patience goes to die