Deep Dive Analysis
Pi Network (PI)
2026-10-12 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.08
0.08
52W HIGH
0.27
0.27
DRAWDOWN
-69.8%
-69.8%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 0 Bull / 9 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (39.3), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.49)
PI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.19
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.08
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.08
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 39.3 | ADX (14) | 14.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.09 | 200d MA | 0.12 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.08 | Resistance | 0.10 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.99%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| PI | -8.5% | -5.2% | -40.1% | -56.1% |
| BTC | -3.5% | +30.8% | +30.6% | +10.5% |
| ETH | -8.0% | +36.5% | +41.0% | +14.6% |
| SOL | -5.7% | +47.4% | +56.3% | +14.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
32,460
RETURN
-7.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-11.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| PI | -7.3% | -53.7% | -11.4% | 9 | 44% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (PI)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -56.1% | 16,213 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -27.1% | 25,519 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -27.7% | 25,293 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -23.7% | 26,711 |
PI Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.08 (-4.0%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-08 | SELL | 0.09 | -0.6% |
| 2026-09-09 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-10 | SELL | 0.10 | -2.9% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 0.09 | -0.3% |
| 2026-09-13 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-14 | SELL | 0.10 | -0.7% |
| 2026-09-15 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-16 | SELL | 0.09 | -7.3% |
| 2026-09-26 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-27 | SELL | 0.09 | +0.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-12 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
-70% from the high and still 0 bull factors out of 9. my cousin keeps telling me pi is gonna moon once mainnet does xyz. been hearing that since 2021 my guy
Been the same since the 2021 referrals. Nine factors checked, zero bullish, and the reply is always just wait for the next announcement. At some point the waiting is the thesis
@gravel_sats same story with my brother in law. at some point you have to accept that a coin down 70% with distribution on OBV is not coiling for a breakout, it is bleeding out
The stop loss at 0.08 on an entry near current price is basically no stop at all. And targets at 0.00? The system is telling you there is no upside case and people will still buy the dip lol
the 0.00 target is the funniest part of this whole system. model looked at PI and said there is no floor i can name. also who is running a 35k deployment plan on a coin with ADX 14, nothing is trending
backtest log is just loss after loss, -7.3% in a day in there. trend following on a coin with no trend up is just a donation machine
backtest showing -7.3% in a day and people in my group chat still call this coiling. RSI 39 with zero bull factors is just bleed in slow motion