Deep Dive Analysis
THORChain (RUNE)
2026-07-23 08:33 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.43
0.43
52W HIGH
7.57
7.57
DRAWDOWN
-94.3%
-94.3%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 6 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (58.0), rising 1m & 3m, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.59)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, far below high
RUNE Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.72
Low: 0.30
Now: 0.43
Low: 0.30
Now: 0.43
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 58.0 | ADX (14) | 17.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.40 | 200d MA | 0.45 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.37 | Resistance | 0.46 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.53%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| RUNE | +8.8% | +0.3% | -2.3% | -39.4% |
| BTC | +6.6% | -15.4% | -7.9% | -30.5% |
| ETH | +13.2% | -9.8% | -8.4% | -38.1% |
| SOL | -4.1% | -11.3% | -12.2% | -44.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
29,750
RETURN
-15.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-21.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| RUNE | -15.0% | -64.9% | -21.1% | 14 | 50% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (RUNE)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -39.4% | 10,464 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -38.6% | 21,480 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -30.8% | 24,216 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -25.1% | 26,215 |
RUNE Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.40 (-7.1%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (130.2%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.5) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-12 | BUY | 0.60 | |
| 2026-05-13 | SELL | 0.58 | -3.3% |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 0.59 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 0.50 | -15.6% |
| 2026-07-17 | BUY | 0.43 | |
| 2026-07-18 | SELL | 0.43 | +0.2% |
| 2026-07-19 | BUY | 0.44 | |
| 2026-07-20 | SELL | 0.44 | +0.2% |
| 2026-07-21 | BUY | 0.45 | |
| 2026-07-22 | SELL | 0.44 | -3.2% |
| 2026-07-23 | BUY | 0.43 | |
| END | SELL | 0.43 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-23 08:33 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
95% drawdown from the 52w high and theyre calling it a HOLD? thats some serious hopium
runenode_42 95pct drawdown from 52w high of 7.57 to 0.43. even if the product works, the token is dead money until burn mechanics actually kick in
RUNE at 0.43 is basically a lottery ticket at this point. the swap volume dried up months ago
disagree. THORChain still does more volume than most DEXs. the problem is tokenomics not the product
the product works fine yes but if RUNE keeps diluting to fund vaults the price aint recovering
Liang W. THORChain does volume yes but the RUNE tokenomics require burning to mint vault assets. its a deflationary mechanism built on volume that is declining quarter over quarter
mev_relay_ the burn-to-mint mechanic sounds deflationary but only if volume grows. RUNE volume has been declining 3 quarters straight. the mechanism works in theory not in practice
^ three quarters of declining volume and the roadmap keeps shipping vault features. product velocity and token demand are fully disconnected
vault features shipping while volume bleeds for three quarters straight. building product into a demand hole is the classic L1 death spiral with extra steps
35k into a coin down 95% from ATH. bold strategy
i DCA’d RUNE at 1.20 last year. wish i had read a SELL analysis back then lol
52w high 7.57 and now at 0.43. thats not a drawdown thats a massacre. hold rating feels generous
the 35k deployment plan at these prices is either genius or delusion. betting on cross-chain swap recovery when volume is at multi-year lows
RUNE at 35K deployment with a 94.3 percent drawdown from ath. holding through that kind of loss requires either conviction or sunk cost delusion
slip_rat_ stage 3 on the drawdown chart with a 94 percent loss is basically a recovery play at this point. either it comes back or it goes to zero
RUNE at 0.43 with a 7.57 high is a 94pct drawdown. even AVAX which everyone calls dead is only down 88. different level of pain
THORChain swap volume is actually decent despite the price action. the protocol works, the token just doesnt capture value from it
0.43 with a 7.57 high is a 94 percent drawdown. calling HOLD on a coin that lost 94 percent requires explaining why the bottom is here specifically
Olu B. 94 pct drawdown and HOLD is not analysis its cope. the swap volume thesis only works if RUNE captures value from it which it doesnt
cope would be holding with no thesis. the swaps settle and liquidity is real, its just that none of it flows to the token anymore. thats the actual bear case
kentoro_ the swap engine settles real volume but none of it flows to RUNE. thats not a HOLD rating, thats a eulogy with charts
burn mechanics are the last hope except the burn rate depends on volume that keeps declining. a reflexive bet on a shrinking base, the chart already priced it
52w high of 7.57 and current price 0.43. even if the product works the tokenomics are broken. diluting RUNE to back vault assets is a slow bleed
A hold rating after a 94 percent drawdown is a shrug with formatting. The swap engine settles real volume daily, whether any of it accrues to RUNE is the whole question
hold at 0.43 after a 95% drawdown means the rating vocabulary ran out. sell was at 7, holding here is just hostage sympathy