Deep Dive Analysis
THORChain (RUNE)
2026-07-23 08:33 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.43
0.43
52W HIGH
7.57
7.57
DRAWDOWN
-94.3%
-94.3%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 6 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (58.0), rising 1m & 3m, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.59)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, far below high
RUNE Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.72
Low: 0.30
Now: 0.43
Low: 0.30
Now: 0.43
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 58.0 | ADX (14) | 17.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.40 | 200d MA | 0.45 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.37 | Resistance | 0.46 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.53%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| RUNE | +8.8% | +0.3% | -2.3% | -39.4% |
| BTC | +6.6% | -15.4% | -7.9% | -30.5% |
| ETH | +13.2% | -9.8% | -8.4% | -38.1% |
| SOL | -4.1% | -11.3% | -12.2% | -44.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
29,750
RETURN
-15.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-21.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| RUNE | -15.0% | -64.9% | -21.1% | 14 | 50% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (RUNE)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -39.4% | 10,464 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -38.6% | 21,480 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -30.8% | 24,216 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -25.1% | 26,215 |
RUNE Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.40 (-7.1%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (130.2%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.5) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-12 | BUY | 0.60 | |
| 2026-05-13 | SELL | 0.58 | -3.3% |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 0.59 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 0.50 | -15.6% |
| 2026-07-17 | BUY | 0.43 | |
| 2026-07-18 | SELL | 0.43 | +0.2% |
| 2026-07-19 | BUY | 0.44 | |
| 2026-07-20 | SELL | 0.44 | +0.2% |
| 2026-07-21 | BUY | 0.45 | |
| 2026-07-22 | SELL | 0.44 | -3.2% |
| 2026-07-23 | BUY | 0.43 | |
| END | SELL | 0.43 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-23 08:33 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
95% drawdown from the 52w high and theyre calling it a HOLD? thats some serious hopium
RUNE at 0.43 is basically a lottery ticket at this point. the swap volume dried up months ago
disagree. THORChain still does more volume than most DEXs. the problem is tokenomics not the product
the product works fine yes but if RUNE keeps diluting to fund vaults the price aint recovering
35k into a coin down 95% from ATH. bold strategy
i DCA’d RUNE at 1.20 last year. wish i had read a SELL analysis back then lol