Deep Dive Analysis
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
2026-07-31 08:31 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.00
0.00
DRAWDOWN
-0%
-0%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: RSI healthy (63.4), strong bull trend (ADX 52.1), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 3.5)
Bearish factors: 50d falling, far below high
SHIB Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 63.4 | ADX (14) | 52.1 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.09%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SHIB | +17.8% | -5.8% | -21.5% | -41.1% |
| BTC | -0.4% | -13.0% | -5.9% | -24.6% |
| ETH | +5.2% | -6.1% | -8.0% | -31.7% |
| SOL | -5.7% | -10.1% | -14.5% | -42.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
25,583
RETURN
-26.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-26.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SHIB | -26.9% | -70.6% | -26.9% | 33 | 9% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SHIB)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -41.1% | 13,738 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -42.0% | 20,312 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -39.6% | 21,140 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -34.1% | 23,065 |
SHIB Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Entry quality | Unknown (R:R None) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-09-21 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2025-09-22 | SELL | 0.00 | -7.7% |
| 2026-01-09 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-10 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-13 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-14 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-22 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-23 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-26 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-27 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-28 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-31 08:31 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
ADX 52 and they still call it HOLD? thats a strong trend my guy, not a topping signal
shiba_pilot ADX at 52 is strong trend but SHIB historically has 3 day pumps followed by 3 month grinds. HOLD rating makes sense if you look at the 50d slope
marubozu_kep ADX 52 on SHIB with the 50d still falling just means the downtrend is strong. HOLD is copium when the system literally confirms bearish momentum
adx measures trend strength only. direction comes from the 50d slope, which points down. 52 there just confirms the grind lower my guy
ADX measures trend strength not direction. 52 on a falling 50d means the downtrend is strong. the HOLD call is the chart being read correctly
ADX 52 on a falling 50d and the rating is HOLD. that is not a thesis, that is hope with a chart attached
Vidar H. honestly the right read. trend strength this high with the 50d pointing down, a HOLD is just a SELL with paperwork attached
the fee charts are the whole autopsy. bone pitched as gas for a network and settled into collectible status. lottery sizing is the only honest play
RSI at 63.4 is barely warm though. seen way worse entries on SHIB back in 2021
^ exactly, people screaming top when ADX is literally trending hard. the 50d falling is the only real bear case here
35K deployment into a token with zero fundamentals beyond meme value is wild. at least the ADX supports the trend for now
Devon M. 35K on SHIB in 2026 is honestly brave. the 50d falling while ADX is 52 just means the trend is strongly down. not a buy signal
fundamentals on a meme is a category error my guy. SHIB has the one thing that matters at this size, exit liquidity deep enough to clear 35k without moving it
35K into SHIB in 2026 when bone token volume is basically zero. the burn rate doesnt even cover gas fees anymore
shibarium was supposed to make bone the gas asset and the fee charts still show nothing in 2026. your utility token doing 5 figure volume on a good week answers the question by itself
the fee charts showing nothing is the part that stings. bone was pitched as the gas asset for an entire network and settled for collectible status
Halvor N. this. bone was the entire shibarium thesis and the fee revenue still rounds to zero three years in. the chart is the product now
35k on a HOLD while the chart on this very page shows every indicator pointing down. the rating and the chart disagree and the chart always wins
35k on SHIB and the plan is HOLD, fine. But nobody addresses gap risk, this thing does -20% on a Saturday for no reason. Position sizing is the whole game here
gap risk is exactly it. holding through a -20 percent saturday gap like SHIB respects the weekend lol. size it like a lottery ticket and nothing more
Inka M. exactly the gap risk point. if you cant sit through two -20% saturday gaps back to back then the 35k plan is just a donation schedule
the HOLD is basically dont add, dont panic. ADX 52 on a falling 50d says the downtrend has legs, holding here is just inertia with extra steps
bone doing near zero fee volume in 2026 while the shibarium pitch was all about utility. the gas token for a network nobody uses to transact
35k on a coin whose utility pitch died with shibarium fee revenue. the HOLD only makes sense if you admit its a scratch card
scratch card framing is generous, actual scratch cards publish the odds. shib just changes the stickers