Deep Dive Analysis
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
2026-09-19 10:30 UTC · Aisha Okonkwo · 10,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.00
0.00
DRAWDOWN
-0%
-0%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 6 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, MACD bull cross, RSI healthy (60.7), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 80.8), vol 1.25x on up day
Bearish factors: far below high
SHIB Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 60.7 | ADX (14) | 80.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.97%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SHIB | +8.8% | +36.0% | -22.3% | -32.0% |
| BTC | +3.9% | +25.4% | -0.6% | -10.5% |
| ETH | +7.6% | +42.0% | +13.0% | -15.2% |
| SOL | +6.1% | +48.5% | +15.1% | -19.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 10,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
3,384
RETURN
-66.2%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-66.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SHIB | -66.2% | -50.5% | -66.2% | 48 | 6% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SHIB)
If you had deployed 10,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -32.0% | 4,185 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -20.2% | 7,976 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -18.7% | 8,127 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -14.7% | 8,527 |
SHIB Deployment Plan — 10,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Aisha Okonkwo (Yield / Staking Focused). If you’re managing a 10,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 2,500 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Entry quality | Unknown (R:R None) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Yield / Staking Focused.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 0.00 | -16.7% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-11 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| END | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-19 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
backtest says -66.2% over 2 years and the verdict is still HOLD because ADX 80.8. trend following a meme coin is comedy
strong ADX just means the +36% 3 month run already happened. you are reading the headline after the punchline
tbf the hold verdict is riding the +8.8% 1m momentum while everything else bleeds. the -66.2% 2y backtest is a different regime entirely, the engine is not blind to that gap
the comedy is the point. ADX 80.8 measures trend strength, a strong downtrend scores the same as a strong uptrend. direction matters more than the number
this is the comment. ADX 80.8 with price -22% over 6 months is the system complimenting the waterfall
lmao the trend following backtest lost 66% while plain buy and hold only lost 50% on SHIB. 48 trades, 6% win rate. incredible work all around
^ 6% win rate is wild. at that point just set the money on fire, fewer fees. also +8.8% on 1m while -32% on 1y is textbook dead cat territory
6% win rate with trend following is normal-ish, the winners run 10x. but on SHIB the tails are the whole trade, 3 winners in 2 years is a coinflip anyway
3 winners in 2y running 10x only works if you catch the tails. on shib the 40x month was 2021, this engine started after the party ended
tails are the whole trade except this engine only has 2y of data starting after the peak. you cant catch the 2021 tail with a dataset that begins in 2024
48 trades at 6% is basically 3 winners. one lucky long and the whole stats table means nothing
3 winners in 48 trades and two of them are probably the same pump. the stats table is a slot machine receipt
48 trades to lose 66% is honestly efficient. and the system still prints HOLD because the indicators say uptrend, the indicators are the product here, the returns arent
the indicators are the product lol exactly. hold verdict on a -22% six month chart because ADX says strong trend. strong trend down counts i guess
ADX at 80.8 and a Stage 2 uptrend tag, yet the verdict is wait. Six bullish factors against one bearish. Either the system trusts its filters or it does not.
DCA 12 buys landing at -14.7% vs lump sum -32% is the quietest brutal table ive seen all week. averaging into a -22% 6 month trend, brave
12 buys landing at -14.7% vs -32% lump still feels bad until you remember SHIB once did a 40x in a month. sizing discipline beats timing on memes, always has
The 40x month was 2021 with a completely different liquidity backdrop. Sizing discipline helps, but that comparison is doing a lot of work here.
+8.8% on the month while -32% on the year is the most meme coin sentence ever written. hold i guess lol
Stage 2 uptrend tag on a chart that lost a third of its value in a year. I respect the consistency, but the HOLD label reads like optimism with extra steps.
12 dca buys averaging -14.7% vs lump sum -32%. the only thing this analysis proves is that meme coins punish conviction either way lol
dca on a meme is just bleeding slower. -14.7 vs -32 is a consolation prize lol
punishes conviction either way, exactly. the only edge on memes is position size and this table quietly proves it with 12 rows
a 10k deployment plan on a token that lost a third of its value in a year is the most disciplined way to lose money ive ever seen