Deep Dive Analysis
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
2026-10-01 15:00 UTC · Marcus Reid · 30,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.00
0.00
DRAWDOWN
-0%
-0%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 5 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, RSI healthy (53.2), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 84.5), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.98)
Bearish factors: MACD bear cross, far below high
SHIB Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 53.2 | ADX (14) | 84.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.14%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SHIB | +14.0% | +14.0% | -5.0% | -28.8% |
| BTC | +9.7% | +29.8% | +9.6% | -6.1% |
| ETH | +10.3% | +40.2% | +27.1% | -8.9% |
| SOL | +18.9% | +57.6% | +37.0% | -7.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 30,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
9,111
RETURN
-69.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-71.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SHIB | -69.6% | -52.5% | -71.5% | 53 | 6% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SHIB)
If you had deployed 30,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -28.8% | 13,154 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -9.3% | 27,208 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -13.4% | 25,976 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -8.0% | 27,611 |
SHIB Deployment Plan — 30,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Marcus Reid (Long-term HODLer). If you’re managing a 30,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 4,500 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Entry quality | Unknown (R:R None) |
| Max concurrent positions | 8 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Long-term HODLer.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-22 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| END | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-01 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
adx 84.5 screaming strong trend and the verdict is still WAIT lol. system basically says yeah the trend is strong, just not for you
strong trend that is -28.8% on the year, sure. ADX measures trend strength not direction, classic trap
the ADX direction trap claimed my 2021 altseason bag too. trend strength without direction is a speedometer with no steering wheel
speedometer with no steering wheel is the perfect metaphor. ADX 84.5 told you the bleed was committed, the WAIT stamp just made everyone comfortable watching it
the speedometer metaphor works but the WAIT stamp at least stops new money from averaging into the bleed. small mercy
exactly, ADX 84.5 on a tape that is -28.8 percent on the year just means the bleed is efficient. strongest directional signal in the whole table and it points down
backtest turned 30k into 9,111 with a 6% win rate across 53 trades and the verdict is still HOLD lol. this thing is a slow bleed machine
6% win rate over 53 trades is actually impressive in the wrong direction. someone should frame that backtest
framing a losing backtest as transparency is wild. the 6 pct win rate isnt a quirk, its the strategy telling you shib has no trend worth following
6 percent win rate across 53 trades, most shib content wont even show a backtest. this one framed its own failure and still got skewered lol
a 6% win rate can still print positive expectancy if the winners are huge. doubt anyone replying checked that before dunking on the backtest
30k into 9,111 says the winners were not huge. expectancy checked, its negative lol
checked it, 6 pct winners on a 30k book means the one fat winner needs to be a 10 bagger just to get flat. the equity curve already told us it wasnt
the math is the point of the WAIT stamp tho. no fat tail coming on a 6 pct hit rate means the only correct move is starvation over faith
exactly, and the 2021 tail already fired once. nobody gets two lightning strikes on the same meme token
expectancy math is right but 9,111 from 30k already answers it. the winners existed and the system still lost, spreads and stops ate them
positive expectancy at 6 pct winners means one fat tail carries the whole book. shib already had its 2021 tail, waiting for a second at -28 ytd is lottery logic
9,111 after 53 trades is brutal but thats the point of the HOLD stamp. its not telling you to ride it, its telling you not to add
ADX at 84.5 is a genuinely strong trend reading, yet the system calls it WAIT with low conviction. The MACD bear cross is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that verdict.
30k into 9,111 on the 2-year backtest and they still rate it HOLD. honestly the most transparent shib take ive read in months, most analysts hide that part
backtests on meme coins are always brutal like this. an RSI 40-75 filter cant save you from a -71.5% max drawdown, the death cross comes way too late on SHIB
obv says accumulation and vol ratio 1.98 but macd bear crossed, mixed signals everywhere. shib +14% on the month while still down 28.8% on the year, classic shib
an ADX 84.5 WAIT stamp on SHIB is the system politely saying the trend is strong and it is not your friend. the -71.5 pct max drawdown says the rest
6 percent win rate across 53 trades is diabolical. holding shib at this point is a personality trait not a position
personality trait not a position is the correct read. 9,111 from 30k and the verdict is hold with low conviction lol
^ holding shib at this point is merch. you dont sell the shirt of a team that stopped playing