Deep Dive Analysis
Toncoin (TON)
2026-07-23 09:41 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
32.02
32.02
DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
-100.0%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 6 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (50.4), rising 1m & 3m, vol 20.0x on up day
Bearish factors: price < 50d, far below high
TON Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 50.4 | ADX (14) | 15.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.93%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| TON | +2.0% | +19.3% | +66.0% | -22.0% |
| BTC | +6.6% | -15.4% | -7.9% | -30.5% |
| ETH | +13.2% | -9.8% | -8.4% | -38.1% |
| SOL | -4.1% | -11.3% | -12.2% | -44.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
0
RETURN
-100.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| TON | -100.0% | -94.2% | -100.0% | 51 | 26% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (TON)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -22.0% | 56 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -24.0% | 11,401 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -8.6% | 13,713 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -5.2% | 14,227 |
TON Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-3.9%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-27 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-28 | SELL | 0.01 | -1.1% |
| 2026-06-01 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-06-02 | SELL | 0.01 | -3.0% |
| 2026-06-04 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-06-23 | SELL | 0.01 | -8.9% |
| 2026-07-02 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-08 | SELL | 0.01 | -0.6% |
| 2026-07-10 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-13 | SELL | 0.01 | -1.4% |
| 2026-07-14 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-16 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-23 09:41 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
price literally shows 0.01 with -100% drawdown and they still put HOLD on it? what does SELL look like then
@Pavel the system says 6 bull factors vs 2 bear. golden cross and 200d above. its a contrarian HOLD not a conviction one
honest answer, SELL on this framework means the chain already halted. the system needs a trend to work with and TON flatlined a year ago
bought TON near $28 because of the Telegram integration hype. this is what happens when you marry your bags
i bought the telegram integration story near 25. an app with a billion users and the token still couldnt capture a cent of it, thats the whole lesson here
the billion users were never wallet users. sticking a token button next to the sticker shop aint distribution
a billion installs and wallet activation was a rounding error. the token button was decoration next to the sticker shop
an app with a billion installs and the token still captured nothing. downloads dont pay rent, TON at 0.01 is just the receipt
51 trades with 26% win rate and -100% strategy return. this backtest is basically a cautionary tale for anyone trying to trend-follow a coin that went to essentially zero
the DCA 12 buys returning -5.2% vs lump sum at -22% is the only useful takeaway here. never lump sum a falling knife
565 BNB deployment on a coin trading at 0.01 with -100% drawdown and nobody thought to maybe update the rating system
telegram_refugee_ the whole system flags 6 bull factors including golden cross on something that went to essentially zero. backtest models need a delisting filter
the delisting filter point is brutal but fair. golden cross signals on something down 100% from 32.02 is statistical noise from a dead series
6 bull factors vs 2 bear on a 0.01 token. the model is counting technicals on a chart that flatlined. this is where a human has to overrule the spreadsheet
the human override is doing all the work here. six bull factors on a series that went 32.02 to 0.01 is the spreadsheet version of reading tea leaves
the override column is doing cardio at this point. every hold on a dead trend comes with a footnote explaining why this time its different
every model output this year has needed a footnote to stay polite. at some point the override column IS the analysis and the factor list is theater
a 565 BNB deployment plan attached to a 0.01 token is the funniest thing on this site. the model says HOLD, the chart says RIP, pick your fighter
hold signal on a chart shaped like a ski slope lol. the trend system deserves a medal for restraint
the only honest part of the whole TON sheet is the backtest losing 100 percent. trend following a token with no trend is donating to the exchange
the backtest losing 100 pct is the free lesson here. the ones paying tuition were buying the 32 to 25 telegram story and holding the whole way down
the free lesson framing is perfect. a 26 percent win rate backtest told the entire story before the override column even opened
6 bull factors on a chart that went 32.02 to 0.01 is my favorite kind of model output. technically correct and completely useless at the same time