Deep Dive Analysis
Uniswap (UNI)
2026-10-10 00:24 UTC · Marcus Reid · 30,000 Portfolio
PRICE
7.35
7.35
52W HIGH
10.22
10.22
DRAWDOWN
-28.1%
-28.1%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 4 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: MACD-, RSI weak (41.2), strong bear trend (ADX 26.8)
UNI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 4.00
Low: 2.40
Now: 7.35
Low: 2.40
Now: 7.35
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 41.2 | ADX (14) | 26.8 |
| 50d MA | 7.18 | 200d MA | 4.30 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 6.01 | Resistance | 10.22 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.25%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| UNI | -15.2% | +83.6% | +146.7% | +83.6% |
| BTC | +2.0% | +27.2% | +12.2% | +5.0% |
| ETH | -4.7% | +30.0% | +24.1% | +1.7% |
| SOL | -3.0% | +48.3% | +32.7% | +3.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 30,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
46,867
RETURN
+56.2%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-30.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| UNI | +56.2% | +126.8% | -30.4% | 26 | 35% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (UNI)
If you had deployed 30,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +83.6% | 68,033 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +121.3% | 66,405 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +109.0% | 62,693 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +94.1% | 58,243 |
UNI Deployment Plan — 30,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Marcus Reid (Long-term HODLer). If you’re managing a 30,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 4,500 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 6.73 (-8.5%) |
| Target 1 | 8.00 (8.8%) |
| Target 2 | 9.00 (22.4%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 8 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Long-term HODLer.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-04 | BUY | 3.90 | |
| 2026-08-05 | SELL | 3.85 | -1.4% |
| 2026-08-06 | BUY | 4.04 | |
| 2026-08-07 | SELL | 4.01 | -0.7% |
| 2026-08-08 | BUY | 3.98 | |
| 2026-08-09 | SELL | 4.00 | +0.6% |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | 3.99 | |
| 2026-08-13 | SELL | 3.57 | -10.4% |
| 2026-08-21 | BUY | 3.76 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 7.05 | +87.4% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 6.85 | |
| END | SELL | 7.35 | +7.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-10 00:24 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
RSI 41 is the classic drift zone, too weak to chase too strong to short. waiting for a daily close above 7.35 before any tranche
daily close rule saves so much pain. the golden cross crowd pays for conviction, the close rule pays only for confirmation
waiting for that daily close too, but by the time it prints you give up the best entries of the tranche. split the difference, half now half on confirmation
4 bull factors vs 3 bear and they still call it BUY. medium conviction is doing a lot of work here lol
tbf the bull factors carried bigger weights, but yeah medium conviction is them hedging. 7.35 reclaim or nothing
medium conviction is the tell. system wants the exposure but wont vouch for the timing, tranches exist for exactly this moment
medium conviction with RSI 41 is the system asking for patience. starter tranche now, rest after a weekly close over 7.35
at least they labeled it medium. most newsletters slap a buy on anything above the 200d and skip the bearish list entirely
4 vs 3 with negative macd tells you the weights do the deciding, the conviction label is just the output. at least the entry logic is honest
medium conviction with negative MACD and ADX 26.8 pointing the other way? UNI at 7.35 needs to reclaim a lot before this looks like a real entry
reclaim is doing heavy lifting yeah. negative macd on a buy call is the system hoping, not knowing
golden cross plus a rising 50d is enough for a starter position imo. not deploying the full 30k on this signal though
same, starter tranche at 7.35 and the rest only if the 50d holds as support. golden cross alone has burned me twice this year
golden cross burned me on arbitrum twice this year. tranche logic only helps if you actually skip the second buy when the 50d breaks
splitting it into tranches was probably the plan anyway. RSI at 41 leaves room to run if the trend flips
UNI up 146 percent over 6 months but minus 15 on the last one, momentum cooling for sure. RSI 41 aint weak, its just drifting
medium conviction is the newsletter version of dont blame me. at least tranches make the hedging structural instead of emotional
minus 15 on the month after a 146 percent run is mean reversion doing chores. 7.35 holding the golden cross is the only level that matters