Deep Dive Analysis
Worldcoin (WLD)
2026-09-15 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.37
0.37
52W HIGH
4.17
4.17
DRAWDOWN
-91.0%
-91.0%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 5 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, strong bull trend (ADX 27.2)
Bearish factors: MACD-, falling 1m & 3m, far below high
WLD Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.59
Low: 0.23
Now: 0.37
Low: 0.23
Now: 0.37
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 46.5 | ADX (14) | 27.2 |
| 50d MA | 0.36 | 200d MA | 0.36 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.31 | Resistance | 0.50 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.85%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| WLD | -2.4% | -9.6% | +48.7% | -36.9% |
| BTC | -2.2% | +18.2% | -4.0% | -15.9% |
| ETH | +1.1% | +30.8% | +7.8% | -22.0% |
| SOL | +3.7% | +28.8% | +13.3% | -26.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
27,066
RETURN
+80.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-38.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| WLD | +80.4% | -50.1% | -38.2% | 46 | 52% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (WLD)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -36.9% | 3,713 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -38.3% | 9,250 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -19.6% | 12,061 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -16.4% | 12,535 |
WLD Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.32 (-15.7%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-03 | BUY | 0.43 | |
| 2026-07-04 | SELL | 0.43 | -1.9% |
| 2026-08-20 | BUY | 0.37 | |
| 2026-08-21 | SELL | 0.40 | +7.4% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 0.42 | |
| 2026-08-27 | SELL | 0.41 | -0.8% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 0.40 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 0.42 | +5.6% |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | 0.48 | |
| 2026-09-08 | SELL | 0.45 | -5.4% |
| 2026-09-09 | BUY | 0.42 | |
| END | SELL | 0.37 | -9.8% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-15 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
0.37 against a 4.17 high is brutal but that ADX 27.2 with a rising 50d is the only reason this signal makes sense. Still, deploying into something 91% down feels more like hope than trend following.
That backtest log is a reality check. Six round trips since July and the best one was +7.4%. Chop like that will eat the 15k plan alive before any real trend shows up.
Exactly, and the last backtest entry bought 0.42 on the 9th and is now sitting at 0.37 underwater. The system keeps catching small bounces and missing the macro picture.
six round trips for a 7.4% best case is rough math. one clean break of 0.50 pays for all of it tho, thats the entire bet
six round trips for +7.4% best case is only rough if you keep size equal. tranche 1 at 0.37 is the parking ticket, the second tranche is where the 0.50 break pays you
The stop at 0.32 is only 15% away which is tight given how fast WLD moves on Sam Altman headlines. One bad news cycle and both tranches are out.
you said 15% away like thats tight lol. with a 7.85% daily ATR thats a two day move max
two day move max is also the bull case tho. same atr that blows the stop is what rips thru 0.50 if an altman headline lands right
tight stop cuts both ways though. you saw the backtest, worst trade was -6.8%, that discipline is why the equity curve survives WLD headline roulette at all
ATR of 7.85% a day on WLD is the real risk number here. a stop at 0.32 with that kind of volatility is basically one altman headline away from triggering
position sizing does the work here. on a 15k book a 7.85% atr name gets a tiny slot, stop at 0.32 fires and its a parking ticket not a funeral
parking ticket framing is perfect. vol based sizing on a 7.85% atr name is the only adult decision in the whole plan
a BUY on something 91% off its high with high conviction attached. trend following is just momentum in a suit
momentum in a suit still beat holding thru the 4.17 to 0.37 slide. the system never claimed to buy bottoms, it claims to not fight trends
momentum in a suit is fine when the suit is up 48.7% while spot bagholders rode 4.17 down to 0.37. you can laugh at the signal or at the drawdown, pick one
The system only reads 50d/200d crossovers. ADX 27 is decent but RSI 46.5 is dead flat, this is closer to a coin flip than high conviction
+48.7% over 6 months while everyone pretends WLD is dead. if 0.50 resistance breaks this moves fast
agreed, and 0.31 support is the line im watching. lose that and the whole stage 2 talk is out the window
0.50 has been the ceiling since the june rejection. six months of +48.7% means nothing until price closes a week above it, id size the second tranche off that instead of the signal
the 0.50 test also lines up with where the june rejection volume clustered. if it clears with actual volume this time its a different story
Golden cross with RSI still under 50 is the interesting part. Trend is young, so if 0.50 breaks there is room before everyone piles in.
Splitting 15,000 across six entries on WLD feels more like a part time job than a position. Respect the discipline, but one clean 0.50 break does the same work.
The whole thesis is one Altman headline away from either working or stopping out at 0.32. WLD never does boring.
0.32 stop on a name that moves 7.85% atr daily and gaps on every altman headline is generous. i’d tighten to 0.38 and take fewer entries
0.38 stop on a 7.85 percent atr name just gets wicked then you re enter higher. small size at 0.32 is fewer decisions, fewer spreads paid