Deep Dive Analysis
Worldcoin (WLD)
2026-09-15 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.37
0.37
52W HIGH
4.17
4.17
DRAWDOWN
-91.0%
-91.0%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 5 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, strong bull trend (ADX 27.2)
Bearish factors: MACD-, falling 1m & 3m, far below high
WLD Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.59
Low: 0.23
Now: 0.37
Low: 0.23
Now: 0.37
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 46.5 | ADX (14) | 27.2 |
| 50d MA | 0.36 | 200d MA | 0.36 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.31 | Resistance | 0.50 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.85%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| WLD | -2.4% | -9.6% | +48.7% | -36.9% |
| BTC | -2.2% | +18.2% | -4.0% | -15.9% |
| ETH | +1.1% | +30.8% | +7.8% | -22.0% |
| SOL | +3.7% | +28.8% | +13.3% | -26.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
27,066
RETURN
+80.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-38.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| WLD | +80.4% | -50.1% | -38.2% | 46 | 52% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (WLD)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -36.9% | 3,713 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -38.3% | 9,250 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -19.6% | 12,061 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -16.4% | 12,535 |
WLD Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.32 (-15.7%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-03 | BUY | 0.43 | |
| 2026-07-04 | SELL | 0.43 | -1.9% |
| 2026-08-20 | BUY | 0.37 | |
| 2026-08-21 | SELL | 0.40 | +7.4% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 0.42 | |
| 2026-08-27 | SELL | 0.41 | -0.8% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 0.40 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 0.42 | +5.6% |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | 0.48 | |
| 2026-09-08 | SELL | 0.45 | -5.4% |
| 2026-09-09 | BUY | 0.42 | |
| END | SELL | 0.37 | -9.8% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-15 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
0.37 against a 4.17 high is brutal but that ADX 27.2 with a rising 50d is the only reason this signal makes sense. Still, deploying into something 91% down feels more like hope than trend following.
That backtest log is a reality check. Six round trips since July and the best one was +7.4%. Chop like that will eat the 15k plan alive before any real trend shows up.
Exactly, and the last backtest entry bought 0.42 on the 9th and is now sitting at 0.37 underwater. The system keeps catching small bounces and missing the macro picture.
The stop at 0.32 is only 15% away which is tight given how fast WLD moves on Sam Altman headlines. One bad news cycle and both tranches are out.
tight stop cuts both ways though. you saw the backtest, worst trade was -6.8%, that discipline is why the equity curve survives WLD headline roulette at all
a BUY on something 91% off its high with high conviction attached. trend following is just momentum in a suit
momentum in a suit still beat holding thru the 4.17 to 0.37 slide. the system never claimed to buy bottoms, it claims to not fight trends
The system only reads 50d/200d crossovers. ADX 27 is decent but RSI 46.5 is dead flat, this is closer to a coin flip than high conviction
+48.7% over 6 months while everyone pretends WLD is dead. if 0.50 resistance breaks this moves fast
agreed, and 0.31 support is the line im watching. lose that and the whole stage 2 talk is out the window
0.50 has been the ceiling since the june rejection. six months of +48.7% means nothing until price closes a week above it, id size the second tranche off that instead of the signal