Deep Dive Analysis
Worldcoin (WLD)
2026-09-26 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.48
0.48
52W HIGH
4.17
4.17
DRAWDOWN
-88.6%
-88.6%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 10 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (59.9), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 27.8), vol 1.69x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.6)
Bearish factors: far below high
WLD Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.51
Low: 0.23
Now: 0.48
Low: 0.23
Now: 0.48
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 59.9 | ADX (14) | 27.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.39 | 200d MA | 0.36 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.35 | Resistance | 0.51 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.96%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| WLD | +19.9% | +38.2% | +97.2% | -7.4% |
| BTC | +5.4% | +30.8% | +9.3% | -10.2% |
| ETH | +8.4% | +43.6% | +26.4% | -18.0% |
| SOL | +16.9% | +62.0% | +41.4% | -12.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
34,436
RETURN
+129.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-40.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| WLD | +129.6% | -35.6% | -40.2% | 46 | 54% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (WLD)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -7.4% | 5,604 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +3.4% | 15,514 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +10.4% | 16,553 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +10.8% | 16,619 |
WLD Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.40 (-15.9%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (109.8%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (109.8%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.5) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-03 | BUY | 0.43 | |
| 2026-07-04 | SELL | 0.43 | -1.9% |
| 2026-08-20 | BUY | 0.37 | |
| 2026-08-21 | SELL | 0.40 | +7.4% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 0.42 | |
| 2026-08-27 | SELL | 0.41 | -0.8% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 0.40 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 0.42 | +5.6% |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | 0.48 | |
| 2026-09-08 | SELL | 0.45 | -5.4% |
| 2026-09-09 | BUY | 0.42 | |
| END | SELL | 0.48 | +14.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-26 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
7.96% daily ATR and a 15k deployment right under resistance. Brave. I would rather wait for the 0.35 support retest than chase a 97% six month run.
waiting for 0.35 means fighting the trend tho, price is above the 50d and 200d with ADX at 27.8. i would split it, half now half at your retest, that way the 0.51 break pays for the stopout
10 bull vs 1 bear factors on WLD at 0.48? the one bear factor better be the -88.6 percent drawdown lmao. still, sam altman adjacency and orb signups keep climbing, might ladder in small
the one bear factor is right there in the snapshot, far below high. my issue is the 0.51 resistance sitting like 6 percent overhead, laddering in before that breaks is just donating to sellers
the bear factor is right there in the header, -88.6 percent off the 4.17 high. deploying 15k into something that roundtripped that hard takes a conviction i simply do not have
Every time I almost buy Worldcoin I remember I would have to scan my eyeball. Privacy cost is real even if the World ID thesis is solid long term
same on the eyeball thing. curious how much bigger orb signup numbers would be if world id ever shipped a non biometric option for people like us
from a pure dev standpoint world id is one of the few sybil resistance attempts that actually shipped at scale. price is garbage but the tech isnt, bought a small bag at 0.50
shipped at scale is generous, spain and kenya both told the orbs to pack up. sybil resistance via proprietary hardware is a bold bet when zk alternatives keep improving
@null_pointer shipped at scale is doing heavy lifting there, the orb rollout got banned in like half the countries it tried. 15k portfolio into this is brave