Bitcoin is stuck in the middle of one of its least inspiring stretches in years, yet a surprising corner of the market is quietly within striking distance of all-time highs. According to an analysis published October 17 by 24/7 Wall St., three major cryptocurrencies stand out as the closest among large caps to record prices: Hyperliquid (HYPE), Monero (XMR) and Bitcoin (BTC) itself. As of October 17, 2026, Hyperliquid trades around 80 USD, Monero around 558 USD, and Bitcoin around 81,500 USD, according to the report.
But the distances involved vary enormously, and so do the obstacles.
### The Percentage Math Favors Hyperliquid
On pure price distance, Hyperliquid leads the race. HYPE needs only a 22.9 percent gain to reclaim its record of roughly 98 USD, set on September 23 of this year. Monero needs 42.9 percent to revisit its peak of about 798 USD reached on January 14. Bitcoin has the longest climb, needing 54.7 percent to top its record of 126,080 USD from October 6, 2025.
In market-capitalization terms, the gap is even starker. Hyperliquid hitting its previous peak at current circulating supply would imply a market cap of about 21.8 billion USD, up from roughly 17.7 billion today. Monero’s record would imply around 15 billion USD from a current 10.5 billion. Bitcoin, by contrast, would need to rise from roughly 1.64 trillion USD to about 2.53 trillion USD.
Supply dilution complicates the picture. Hyperliquid has around 222.4 million tokens circulating out of a total supply of 955.3 million, meaning its fully diluted value at the record price would approach 93.6 billion USD, and future unlocks could weigh on any rally. Monero has no maximum supply at all, due to its tail emission that rewards miners indefinitely. Bitcoin, with about 20.1 million of its 21 million coins already circulating, faces minimal dilution.
### Three Different Engines Behind Three Charts
Each contender relies on a completely different buyer. Hyperliquid operates a crypto exchange specializing in perpetual futures, and it spends an estimated 97 to 99 percent of its trading fees buying back and burning HYPE, so volume itself creates consistent buying pressure. As of September 26, about 47.5 million HYPE tokens had been removed from circulation at a cost of roughly 1.32 billion USD.
Momentum partners are stacking up: on October 15, Ripple Prime launched swaps on Hyperliquid markets, and on October 16, Pump. fun introduced Hyperliquid-powered perpetual futures. Yet HYPE rose only 0.8 percent on Ripple’s launch day and fell 5.2 percent over the week, a sign the new volume has not yet reached the fee engine.
Monero’s bid is driven by the privacy-coin renaissance. Over the week leading to October 17, XMR rose 8.1 percent while Bitcoin fell 1.5 percent. It is up 13.5 percent over 30 days and 85.7 percent over the past year, per the report, as privacy-focused cryptocurrencies attract renewed interest.
Bitcoin’s path runs through the spot ETF channel. On October 15, cumulative net inflows into US spot bitcoin funds totaled about 57 billion USD, just below the 57.8 billion peak of October 6. The flows have been choppy, including a 261.5 million USD outflow on October 14 followed by a mere 5.1 million USD inflow, but the structural bid remains the largest in crypto.
### What Stands in Each Way
Hyperliquid’s risks are unlocks that release team and community tokens, a buyback mechanism that weakens whenever trading slows, and Deribit introducing more than 90 USDC-settled contracts that could split institutional volume across venues.
Monero’s problem is liquidity. Delistings of privacy coins by major exchanges under compliance pressure have left the market thin, making XMR prone to outsized swings on small orders, and there is no US spot ETF for it.
Bitcoin’s hurdle is administrative: index provider MSCI implements new rules in November affecting companies holding large digital-asset positions, and Strategy Inc., which reported holding 846,000 bitcoins as of the second quarter, was flagged as possibly ineligible, though removal requires failing screening in two consecutive annual filings.
### The Verdict
In 24/7 Wall St.’s assessment, Hyperliquid has the best chance of setting a new all-time high first, while Bitcoin faces the biggest hurdles despite owning the deepest pool of capital. The levels to watch are concrete: for HYPE, regaining the 84 USD mark from October 10 as the next step, with a daily close above 97.96 USD confirming the record, while a fall below 78.45 USD would signal the anticipated volume has not materialized.
For a market nursing its first back-to-back losing Octobers in over a decade, the race offers an odd comfort: somewhere in crypto, new highs are still close enough to see.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and prices may have changed since publication. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
hyperliquid only needs to climb from a 17.7b to a 21.8b market cap to revisit its peak, thats one decent funding rally away. bitcoin needing 54.7 percent to reach 126,080 is a way taller order
17.7 to 21.8 billion sounds small until you remember hype ran from sept 23 to 98 basically on fumes. monero even being in this race is the plot twist
one funding rally away until you remember what perps did the last time funding went vertical. hyperliquid can get there first but it wont be a calm ride
funding rallies retrace and liquidate the same crowd that carried them up, perps cut both ways. still an easier ask than btc climbing 54.7 pct to 126k
one decent funding rally is carrying a lot of weight in that 22.9 percent math, perps got chopped all month. monero grinding to 558 with zero listing fanfare is the quieter path to 798
Putting Hyperliquid in an ATH conversation six months ago would have gotten you laughed out of the room. Monero quietly sitting in this discussion is the part I did not expect to read today.
HYPE needing only 22.9 percent after that september run is wild, meanwhile bitcoin needs 54.7 and everyone still calls BTC the safe one. distance to ATH says alot about where the momentum actually is
@gapmetric hyperliquid at 80 with a 98 record from sept 23 feels more like a cooloff than a top. monero sitting 42 percent off its january peak is the stranger story imo
54.7 percent to 126,080 for btc felt impossible a month ago and then you remember october 2025 happened. still, my money for first new ath is on the monero sleeper pick
the market cap math is the real tell, 21.8 billion implied at peak supply vs 17.7 now. thats alot of buying required for a coin people keep calling overextended