The cryptocurrency market witnessed a massive options expiry event on May 24, 2024, with approximately $2.7 billion in Bitcoin and Ether options set to expire, providing critical insight into current market sentiment amid a historic week for Ethereum following the SEC’s surprise approval of spot Ether ETFs.
TL;DR
- $2.7 billion in combined BTC and ETH options expired on May 24
- 21,000 Bitcoin options expired with a put/call ratio of 0.88 and max pain at $67,000
- 350,000 Ether options expired with a notional value of $1.3 billion
- ETH surged over 20% in a single day following the SEC’s spot ETF approval on May 23
- An even larger $4.3 billion options expiry looms on May 31
Bitcoin Options Data Reveals Bullish Bias
According to data from Greeks.live, 21,000 Bitcoin options expired on May 24 with a put/call ratio of 0.88, indicating a near-even balance between buyers and sellers with a slight tilt toward call options. The maximum pain point — the price at which most option buyers would incur losses — stood at $67,000, representing a nominal value of $1.4 billion.
Bitcoin was trading around $69,266 on May 25, according to CoinMarketCap data, well above the max pain level. This suggests that many put option holders found themselves out of the money, while call option sellers faced pressure to deliver at lower strike prices.
Deribit data revealed that long positions dominate open interest, with $830 million tied to the $70,000 strike price and a remarkable $843 million in open interest at the $100,000 mark. This substantial OI at higher strikes indicates strong bullish conviction among derivatives traders, with many betting on significantly higher Bitcoin prices in the months ahead.
Ethereum Options Reflect Post-ETF Surge
The options expiry event also included 350,000 Ether contracts, representing a notional value of $1.3 billion. With a put/call ratio of 0.58 and a max pain point of $3,200, the data pointed to a decidedly bullish tone among ETH traders. Ethereum was trading near $3,749 on May 25, well above the max pain level.
The Ethereum options market had experienced extraordinary volatility in the days leading up to the expiry. Following the SEC’s approval of Form 19b-4 filings for eight spot Ether ETFs on May 23, Ethereum led a crypto rally with a stunning one-day 20% surge. Short-term implied volatility for Ethereum options spiked to 150% at one point, significantly higher than Bitcoin’s IV for the same period.
However, analysts noted that sustaining such extreme IV levels for each major term is challenging due to overall market structure. This divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum’s derivatives markets suggested that calendar spread strategies might offer better risk-adjusted returns for options traders looking to capitalize on the volatility gap.
Spot Ether ETF Approval Changes the Game
The May 23 decision by the SEC to approve rule changes permitting the listing and trading of eight separate Ether ETFs represented a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency industry. The approval came just months after spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in the United States in January 2024.
However, the approval of the 19b-4 forms does not mean these ETFs will be immediately available to investors. The registration statements for each ETF remain under SEC review through a separate process, and the timing of final approval remains unclear. Notably, each ETF’s registration statement was amended to preclude any staking of ether held by the fund — a significant limitation given that staking yields are a key feature of the Ethereum ecosystem.
All Eyes on the $4.3 Billion May 31 Expiry
While the May 24 expiry was substantial, it pales in comparison to the event looming on May 31. According to Deribit data, $4.3 billion worth of options are set to expire at the end of the month, making it one of the largest expiry events in recent history. Traders and analysts will be watching closely to see how the market absorbs this massive settlement, particularly given the elevated volatility environment created by the Ether ETF approval.
Why This Matters
The convergence of a historic ETF approval, massive options expiries, and bullish institutional price targets creates a uniquely volatile environment for the cryptocurrency market. Standard Chartered’s head of crypto research, Geoff Kendrick, set an $8,000 year-end target for Ethereum, based on his Bitcoin target of $150,000. Cathie Wood of Ark Invest echoed similar bullish projections. The options market data — with hundreds of millions in open interest at far above current prices — reinforces that sophisticated traders are positioning for continued upside. For DeFi participants and Ethereum stakeholders, the ETF approval represents the beginning of a new chapter of institutional access, even if the actual launch of these funds is still weeks or months away.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
$843M in open interest at the $100k BTC strike. someone is betting very big on six-figure bitcoin
0xMidas.eth 843M at the 100k strike was pocket change for whales betting on ETF momentum. the real money was in the ETH calls that printed 50x on approval day
100k strikes are basically lottery tickets. someone bought those for the gamma play on ETF hype, not because they expected settlement there
$100K strikes were cheap insurance. spent maybe $200 on a few contracts that expired worthless but the gamma was worth the bet
$200 on gamma bets during ETF week is basically free lottery tickets. the people who printed money were the ones selling those calls though
21k BTC options with max pain at 67k when spot was already 69k. dealers were swimming in gamma and had to hedge into the rally. classic mechanical squeeze
ETH max pain at $2,400 with put/call ratio of 0.58. options market positioned very bullish on ETH before the ETF news
eth max pain at 2400 when spot was already above 2600 tells you how skewed the positioning was. call writers got destroyed that week
theta_gang call writers got wrecked because ETH spot was 200 points above max pain. the ETF approval made the options positioning obsolete overnight
eth max pain at $2400 with spot above $2600 was a bloodbath for writers. ETF approval timing couldnt have been worse for them
gamma_squeeze the ETH max pain gap was so wide because nobody expected the SEC to approve the 19b-4 that fast. call writers were positioned for another 6 months of delay and got caught completely offside
vol_crush SEC approving 19b-4 that fast caught everyone off guard. call writers were pricing in months of delay and got gamma squeezed into oblivion
call writers got annihilated. ETH went from 2400 max pain to 2600+ spot in 24 hours. thats a gamma squeeze textbook style
gamma_squeeze call writers were positioned for another 6 months of SEC delay. the 19b-4 approval caught every options desk offside. thats not a gamma squeeze thats a regulatory shock
2.7B notional expiry with ETH IV at post-ETF highs means dealers were short gamma all the way down. The rally wasn’t euphoria it was forced covering through the dealer community.
the 4.3B expiry on May 31 was where the real gamma pain happened. everyone fixated on this one and missed the bigger setup the following week
0.88 put/call ratio on 21k BTC options sounds bullish but half those calls were $100k strikes. the notional is misleading without looking at strike distribution
pin_bar 0.88 put/call ratio with half the calls at 100k strikes is so misleading. the notional numbers made it look like positioning was more bullish than it actually was
max_pain_watch exactly. 0.88 put call ratio looks bullish until you realize half the calls were 100k strikes. the notional headline was basically fantasy
4.3 billion expiry the following week was the real test. this one was just the warmup act
options_watcher the $4.3B expiry on May 31 was the one that set the floor. ETH held above $3,700 after that and the put writers had to cover. the May 24 expiry was just the warmup
the $4.3B expiry the following week was where the real pain was. this one was just positioning for the bigger event
843M open interest at the 100k BTC strike. someone bought those calls knowing theyd expire worthless just for the gamma exposure on ETF approval day. expensive lottery ticket
theta_headache_ has it backwards. The expiry was the catalyst not the risk. Post-settlement IV crush created the tightest spread of the quarter for long vol strategies.
ETH surged 20 percent in a single day on ETF approval and then 350k options expired the next day. max pain at 2400 while spot was flying. dealers got destroyed
strangle_left the gamma squeeze into options expiry is the oldest playbook in crypto. ETH calls at 50x returns on approval day was not luck, it was positioning