Deep Dive Analysis
Spiko EU T-Bills Money Market Fund (EUTBL)
2026-10-12 08:30 UTC · Marcus Reid · 30,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.19
1.19
52W HIGH
1.26
1.26
DRAWDOWN
-5.5%
-5.5%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 2 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD bull cross, within 10% of high
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (23.2), falling 1m & 3m, strong bear trend (ADX 49.0)
EUTBL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.24
Low: 1.19
Now: 1.19
Low: 1.19
Now: 1.19
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 23.2 | ADX (14) | 49.0 |
| 50d MA | 1.21 | 200d MA | 1.22 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.19 | Resistance | 1.23 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.15%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| EUTBL | -2.2% | -2.7% | -3.3% | -4.3% |
| BTC | -3.5% | +30.8% | +30.6% | +10.5% |
| ETH | -8.0% | +36.5% | +41.0% | +14.6% |
| SOL | -5.7% | +47.4% | +56.3% | +14.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 30,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
29,926
RETURN
-0.2%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-1.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| EUTBL | -0.2% | -3.7% | -1.1% | 18 | 39% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (EUTBL)
If you had deployed 30,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -4.3% | 28,886 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -2.7% | 29,191 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -2.5% | 29,237 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -2.6% | 29,227 |
EUTBL Deployment Plan — 30,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Marcus Reid (Long-term HODLer). If you’re managing a 30,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 4,500 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.18 (-0.3%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-15.8%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-15.8%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 8 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Long-term HODLer.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-08-27 | SELL | 1.23 | -0.1% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | 1.23 | -0.6% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | 1.23 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-09-02 | SELL | 1.23 | -0.2% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 1.23 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 1.22 | -0.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-12 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
a tokenized t-bill fund charting a death cross is the most 2026 thing I have seen all week. ADX 49 on a money market product, wild
ADX 49 on a t-bill product means the chart is basically one seller hitting the bid into thin liquidity. wild is the polite word
@yieldmule honestly this reads more like the token wrapper trading at a discount than the underlying bills doing anything. the T-bills themselves did not have a bear trend lol
If it is the wrapper trading at a discount then the real trade is redeem and arb the spread, not short. Curious nobody has pulled that thread yet
The part that would worry me is the MACD bull cross flag being ignored because RSI 23. If redemptions work this snaps back to NAV fast and the SELL call ages poorly. If they dont work, thats the actual story
RSI 23 on something that is supposed to be near-cash is a red flag about liquidity, not a buy signal. Good call flagging it as avoid