Deep Dive Analysis
Solana (SOL)
2026-10-14 16:01 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
104.12
104.12
52W HIGH
294.33
294.33
DRAWDOWN
-64.6%
-64.6%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, MACD-, RSI weak (37.5), far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 30.5)
SOL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 78.19
Low: 60.41
Now: 104.12
Low: 60.41
Now: 104.12
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 37.5 | ADX (14) | 30.5 |
| 50d MA | 109.40 | 200d MA | 87.13 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 96.23 | Resistance | 124.62 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.56%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SOL | -9.4% | +37.9% | +64.0% | +33.2% |
| BTC | -3.0% | +29.1% | +34.4% | +30.5% |
| ETH | -9.5% | +29.3% | +53.7% | +33.3% |
| SOL | -9.4% | +37.9% | +64.0% | +33.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
13,149
RETURN
-12.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-42.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SOL | -12.3% | -29.7% | -42.7% | 51 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SOL)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +33.2% | 8,050 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -4.5% | 14,324 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +13.3% | 16,994 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +8.3% | 16,249 |
SOL Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 94.62 (-9.1%) |
| Target 1 | 116.00 (11.4%) |
| Target 2 | 123.00 (18.1%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | 75.95 | |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | 76.20 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | 76.18 | |
| 2026-08-14 | SELL | 75.33 | -1.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | BUY | 77.03 | |
| 2026-08-19 | SELL | 85.37 | +10.8% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 104.13 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | 105.65 | +1.5% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 101.88 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | 103.00 | +1.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 99.99 | |
| 2026-10-12 | SELL | 105.56 | +5.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-14 16:01 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
A 47% win rate across 51 trades and a -12.3% return against -29.7% buy and hold… and the verdict is WAIT? Honestly that backtest is the most honest part of this whole piece. Everyone else is calling the bottom at every support level, meanwhile SOL just chopped through 96 like it wasnt there. RSI 37.5 with ADX above 30 is not a mix I want to catch falling.
@Marte the ADX reading is exactly why I stopped trying to front-run Stage 1 bottoms. Strong bear trend plus weak RSI usually means the first bounce gets sold. That said, sitting above the 200d at 87 while the 50d at 109 caps you is textbook compression, resolution probably comes fast when it comes. Target 1 at 116 with a stop at 94.62 is at least a defined risk, not a vibe trade.
47 percent win rate across 51 trades and i still trust it more than the bottom callers. the -12.3 print is just the honesty tax of trend following mid range
51 trades is also a tiny sample, could be a 55% true edge with bad variance. either way WAIT off these levels is free
51 trades is enough to know 47 percent is a coin flip with fees attached. the WAIT banner is the system being honest about it
Interesting that the 6-buy DCA beat the 12-buy version by a decent margin. Would have guessed more buys = smoother entry but +13.3% vs +8.3% is not nothing. The lump sum column showing 8,050 on a 15k deploy though… someone check that math, or is that supposed to be the value of the -29.7% path? Either way, deploying in tranches off a -64% drawdown feels less bad than usual.
did the math on the 8,050 column, its the value path of the -29.7% lump sum scenario. table just labels it badly
system backtest returns -12.3% over 2 years and the call is still HOLD lol. that is trend following in one sentence, eat chop while ETH quietly does +29
a 15k simulated portfolio losing 12% might be the most honest thing posted on this site all week
the -12.3% backtest includes holding through the 2024 chop. start the clock in october and the same system is green. trend following always looks dumb mid-range
starting the clock in october proves nothing either, thats curve fitting the other direction. the 200d at 87 is the only level that matters for resolution
eat chop while ETH quietly does +29 is going on a plaque somewhere. the backtest printing red is the feature, it means the system isnt curve fit
curve fit systems always show beautiful backtests, thats how you spot them. a -12.3% print is ugly honesty, i trust it more than any signal that never loses
Price stuck under the 50d at 109.40 with RSI 37.5. I want a reclaim of that before adding anything. Support at 96.23 is the level that decides the next move.
Agreed on the 50d reclaim but the golden cross plus +37.9% over 3 months vs BTC at +29.1% says the trend is not dead. Boring hold, no rebuild.
the +37.9 vs BTC framing is doing heavy lifting. that is a bounce off a -64% drawdown, not a trend. i want the higher low before calling anything
ADX at 14 with price pinned under 109.40 is textbook range conditions. HOLD is the only honest call, adding here is a coin flip
ADX 14 plus RSI 37.5 is exactly the combo that fakes a breakdown then rips. agree, hold and wait for 109.40 to flip
the bear list has ADX at 30.5, strong trend, not 14. strong trend plus RSI 37 is exactly the combo where the first bounce gets sold into, not ripped
strong trend plus weak RSI is exactly the trap combo. first bounce gets sold, learned that the expensive way on the 2021 top
every altseason checklist starts with sol reclaiming its 50d. at 104 with RSI 37 i can wait. the trade gets obvious at 109.40 or it doesnt happen
target 116 against a 94.62 stop is roughly 3 to 1 off the 96 support. if the 50d reclaims the plan writes itself, its the waiting that hurts
3 bull factors against 5 bear and the call is WAIT. refreshing to see a system admit it has no edge instead of forcing a long off one golden cross
104 against a 294 high and the plan still starts a tranche now. buy the 200d retest at 87 or wait, everything between is chop
target 116 off the 96 support is a clean 3 to 1 but you gotta survive the chop to collect it. sitting on hands until 109.40 decides