Deep Dive Analysis
Rain (RAIN)
2026-10-15 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.02
0.02
DRAWDOWN
-52.7%
-52.7%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 10 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (28.3), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 28.3), breakdown below lower band, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.72)
RAIN Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 28.3 | ADX (14) | 28.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.81%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| RAIN | -28.6% | -31.5% | -33.4% | -9.3% |
| BTC | -3.8% | +28.0% | +33.4% | +15.1% |
| ETH | -11.8% | +25.8% | +51.1% | +14.9% |
| SOL | -12.0% | +35.1% | +65.5% | +17.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
17,743
RETURN
+18.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-33.3%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| RAIN | +18.3% | +14.6% | -33.3% | 6 | 50% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (RAIN)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -9.3% | 17,196 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -27.0% | 10,949 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -31.1% | 10,339 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -30.5% | 10,429 |
RAIN Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-11.6%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-24 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-25 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.3% |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-27 | SELL | 0.01 | +43.8% |
| 2026-06-06 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-18 | SELL | 0.01 | +8.5% |
| 2026-07-19 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-20 | SELL | 0.01 | -1.6% |
| 2026-07-22 | BUY | 0.02 | |
| 2026-07-23 | SELL | 0.01 | -5.7% |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.02 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 0.01 | -18.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-15 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
rsi 28.3 and adx 28.3 printing the exact same number is a funny coincidence but the signal is clear. below both MAs with a -52.7% drawdown is not a dip buy
the golden cross is literally the only bull factor on the board and its against 10 bear factors. that signal died weeks ago
Down 31.5% over three months while BTC did +28%. Holding a Stage 4 downtrend because of one stale crossover is just hope with extra steps.
stale crossover plus rsi and adx printing identical 28.3 readings, the board could not be more one sided. the sell call is late but it is still the right call
5.81% daily ATR on a coin trading at 0.01 lol. good luck timing any exit when each candle swings that hard
-52.7% off the 0.02 high and the call is SELL? that ship sailed months ago anon
better late than never i guess. stage 4 downtrend dont exactly scream bounce either
rain at a penny. every cycle one of these does a 50x and thats exactly why bagholders never sell