Deep Dive Analysis
Aave (AAVE)
2026-10-18 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
151.71
151.71
52W HIGH
399.07
399.07
DRAWDOWN
-62.0%
-62.0%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 5 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.56)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
AAVE Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 112.62
Low: 58.05
Now: 151.71
Low: 58.05
Now: 151.71
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 45.4 | ADX (14) | 24.7 |
| 50d MA | 147.24 | 200d MA | 105.12 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 133.67 | Resistance | 187.29 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.18%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| AAVE | -2.1% | +76.6% | +144.4% | +34.7% |
| BTC | -3.4% | +29.9% | +32.3% | +16.3% |
| ETH | -10.4% | +28.4% | +46.9% | +14.4% |
| SOL | -15.6% | +38.2% | +58.6% | +18.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
28,195
RETURN
-19.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-42.8%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| AAVE | -19.4% | -14.8% | -42.8% | 48 | 33% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (AAVE)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +34.7% | 23,870 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +24.0% | 43,385 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +30.5% | 45,667 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +28.5% | 44,974 |
AAVE Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 132.97 (-12.4%) |
| Target 1 | 180.00 (18.6%) |
| Target 2 | 199.00 (31.2%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-03 | BUY | 92.28 | |
| 2026-08-04 | SELL | 90.41 | -2.0% |
| 2026-08-05 | BUY | 89.74 | |
| 2026-08-06 | SELL | 89.59 | -0.2% |
| 2026-08-08 | BUY | 91.23 | |
| 2026-08-09 | SELL | 90.55 | -0.7% |
| 2026-08-19 | BUY | 95.26 | |
| 2026-08-20 | SELL | 99.17 | +4.1% |
| 2026-08-24 | BUY | 132.46 | |
| 2026-08-25 | SELL | 126.27 | -4.7% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 127.03 | |
| END | SELL | 151.71 | +19.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-18 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
backtest says -19.4% over 2 years and the takeaway is BUY with high conviction? the signal is literally underperforming holding
so the backtest lost 19.4%, win rate 33%, 48 trades of churn… and the headline signal is still BUY with HIGH conviction. i get that trend following lives on the occasional big winner but maybe lead with the track record next time lmao
@frothquartz the last two trades in the log were +19.4% and the 3-month chart is +76%. one asymmetric winner pays for ten small losses, that is literally the whole point of the system. 33% win rate with a -42% max dd is rough though, i’ll give you that
Read it again. The system is trend-following, the point is you exit on the death cross instead of eating the full -62% drawdown. Buy and hold won on return here but the strategy wins on risk.
^ this. everyone quoting the -19.4% while ignoring the -42.8% max dd vs whatever B&H drew down is missing the whole thesis
Been lending on Aave since 2021 and the protocol itself keeps shipping. Like that the plan keeps the position at 15% with a stop at 133 – most people would just yolo the whole 35k at once. The three tranches part is the most underrated line in the whole piece.
Good discipline framework. I remember buying AAVE near the 399 top and riding it all the way down – a -12% stop would have saved me a lot of pain. Not fancy, but it works.
AAVE +144% in 6 months and somehow only +34.7% on the 1Y. that is a brutal round trip for the bag holders from last october lol
@stacked exactly, bought the top at ~390 in february, still down 60%. posts like this keep me honest about my entry lol
resistance at 187 feels far but support 133 is only ~12% below spot. decent r/r if the 50d holds imo
OBV rising with a 1.56 volume ratio is the detail I like here. Accumulation at 151 while everyone obsesses over the 399 high.
RSI 45 with ADX 24 is a weird combo for a high conviction call. trend exists but momentum is flat, i’d wait for the RSI turn