Deep Dive Analysis
Avalanche (AVAX)
2026-10-24 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
8.92
8.92
52W HIGH
55.70
55.70
DRAWDOWN
-84.0%
-84.0%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, MACD-, RSI weak (36.4), far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.75)
AVAX Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 9.29
Low: 5.69
Now: 8.92
Low: 5.69
Now: 8.92
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 36.4 | ADX (14) | 20.4 |
| 50d MA | 9.65 | 200d MA | 8.18 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 8.87 | Resistance | 11.98 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.23%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| AVAX | -19.8% | +19.0% | +30.5% | -3.9% |
| BTC | -4.8% | +4.7% | +21.7% | +17.3% |
| ETH | -11.8% | -2.2% | +32.0% | +20.5% |
| SOL | -14.8% | +8.5% | +37.8% | +18.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
17,283
RETURN
-50.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-51.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| AVAX | -50.6% | -64.1% | -51.1% | 54 | 41% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (AVAX)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -3.9% | 15,833 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -13.4% | 30,321 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -4.7% | 33,338 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -7.4% | 32,400 |
AVAX Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 7.81 (-12.5%) |
| Target 1 | 11.00 (23.3%) |
| Target 2 | 12.00 (34.5%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-15 | BUY | 7.27 | |
| 2026-09-16 | SELL | 7.47 | +2.7% |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | 7.61 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 8.20 | +7.7% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 10.27 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 10.19 | -0.8% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 10.65 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 10.86 | +1.9% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 10.91 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 10.59 | -2.9% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 11.44 | |
| 2026-10-22 | SELL | 9.12 | -20.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-24 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
54 trades over 2 years and the system still finished down 50%. the backtest section alone is why i stopped trying to time alts
down 50 vs down 64 is still a loss either way, but the point of the system is you skip the full drawdown when the trend flips. 54 trades though, feels like itd get chewed up by fees on subnets with thin volume
54 trades over 2 years is barely two a month. of course the sample is all drawdown, the system basically just held through the crash anyway
That Sep 29 entry at 11.44 got held all the way down to 9.12. Three weeks of drawdown and the verdict is still HOLD with a target of 11.00.
a stop at 7.81 on something moving 6% a day is basically decorative lol. one bad candle blows right past it
7.81 stop on a chart already down 84%. by the time that triggers there is basically nothing left to protect lol
Held from 11.44 down to 9.12 and the writeup calls it conviction. I called it hope back when I did the same with SOL in 2022.
84% off the high and it still cant bounce. OBV distribution plus volume ratio 0.75 means someone is unloading into every rally
you cant read OBV in a vacuum. price held the 8.87 support all week, that level is the only thing that matters right now
golden cross and price above the 200d are literally in the bull column. the distribution is the real tell tho, agreed on that
35,000 AVAX deployed and the whole plan leans on 8.87 holding. one weekly close below that and the 7.81 stop starts looking generous
the backtest lost 50% while buy and hold lost 64% and im supposed to be impressed? both roads lead to rekt on AVAX
the 50% includes the 2024 chop where basically every alt strat ate it the same way. still ugly, just slightly less damning with context