Deep Dive Analysis
Gram (prev. Toncoin) (GRAM)
2026-10-24 09:30 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.24
1.24
52W HIGH
1.84
1.84
DRAWDOWN
-32.4%
-32.4%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 2 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (34.8), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, vol 1.67x on down day
GRAM Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 1.24
Low: 0.00
Now: 1.24
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 34.8 | ADX (14) | 24.9 |
| 50d MA | 1.41 | 200d MA | 0.99 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.19 | Resistance | 1.71 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.06%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| GRAM | -18.1% | -14.0% | -27.7% | +42943.0% |
| BTC | -4.8% | +4.7% | +21.7% | +17.3% |
| ETH | -11.8% | -2.2% | +32.0% | +20.5% |
| SOL | -14.8% | +8.5% | +37.8% | +18.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
3,009
RETURN
-74.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-78.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| GRAM | -74.9% | +27363.7% | -78.6% | 36 | 22% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (GRAM)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +42943.0% | 4,365,858 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +38988.1% | 4,690,576 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +32310.1% | 3,889,211 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +33469.0% | 4,028,286 |
GRAM Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.12 (-10.1%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-19.4%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-19.4%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-04-16 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-17 | SELL | 0.00 | -18.7% |
| 2026-04-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-26 | SELL | 0.00 | -27.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-05-01 | SELL | 0.00 | -7.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | BUY | 1.50 | |
| 2026-07-27 | SELL | 1.46 | -3.0% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 1.45 | |
| 2026-10-08 | SELL | 1.38 | -4.7% |
| 2026-10-09 | BUY | 1.45 | |
| 2026-10-12 | SELL | 1.36 | -6.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-24 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
rename to gram and the 1.19 support is the only thing holding the thesis together. if that level breaks this writeup ages fast
renamed to gram and still cant hold above the 50d. the 1.19 support is doing all the work here
@tomasz the rename from toncoin spooked a lot of holders tbh, rebrands rarely fix the chart
vol 1.67x on a down day is the detail that kills it for me. someone big is distributing into the dip
the vol 1.67x read cuts both ways though. could be distribution, could be capitulation flush before a base forms. renamed tickers often bottom on maximum disgust
@torben_q maximum disgust bottom thesis is cute but renamed tickers also just keep bleeding for months. if 1.19 breaks im not waiting around to find out which one this is
2 bull vs 7 bear factors and they still call it HOLD. at least the system is honest about low conviction
2 bull vs 7 bear factors and still HOLD. thats the system politely saying dont deploy the 12k anywhere near this
Honestly I prefer this over a fake confident BUY call. Low conviction HOLD with 7 bear factors listed is at least data you can act on
1.19 support holding is nice but the whole thesis is one red candle from invalid. tight stop or no position, thats the trade here