Deep Dive Analysis
Hedera (HBAR)
2026-10-24 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.08
0.08
52W HIGH
0.40
0.40
DRAWDOWN
-80.9%
-80.9%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 2 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, MACD-, RSI weak (34.2), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.65)
HBAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.10
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.08
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.08
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 34.2 | ADX (14) | 22.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.09 | 200d MA | 0.08 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.08 | Resistance | 0.13 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.83%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HBAR | -25.1% | -1.6% | -7.6% | -23.9% |
| BTC | -4.8% | +4.7% | +21.7% | +17.3% |
| ETH | -11.8% | -2.2% | +32.0% | +20.5% |
| SOL | -14.8% | +8.5% | +37.8% | +18.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
15,848
RETURN
+5.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HBAR | +5.7% | -64.6% | -31.5% | 50 | 42% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HBAR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -23.9% | 6,631 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -23.5% | 11,469 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -21.9% | 11,713 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -20.9% | 11,861 |
HBAR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.07 (-13.7%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.09 | +2.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 0.09 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 0.12 | +27.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 0.10 | +2.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 0.10 | -0.2% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-10-14 | SELL | 0.08 | -17.2% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-24 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
-80.9% drawdown and an AVOID rating feels late. the risky trade was buying at 0.40, not watching from 0.08
-80.9% from the high and they only managed +5.7% on a 15k backtest. that tells you everything about catching this knife
T-bills beat that 5.7% backtest with zero drawdown. Hard pass on HBAR either way
Thats the part nobody wants to hear but its true. risk free 4-5% versus a knife catch with a -31.5% drawdown is not a serious comparison
@Sindre backtest also shows a -31.5% max drawdown, youd need iron hands for a 5.7% return lol
iron hands are exactly what you DONT have after watching -80% off the high. most people would cut that trade long before the 5.7% printed
OBV down with a 0.65 vol ratio, yeah thats distribution. been burned on hbar before, skipping this one
exactly on the OBV read. vol ratio 0.65 means nobody is buying this dip, its just slow bleed toward that 0.08 support
the rating being late is fair criticism but 0.08 support is where it gets interesting. if it holds on a retest with OBV flattening out, the setup changes completely