Deep Dive Analysis
Filecoin (FIL)
2026-10-27 11:30 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.89
0.89
52W HIGH
8.38
8.38
DRAWDOWN
-89.3%
-89.3%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, MACD-, RSI weak (37.9), far below high
FIL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.93
Low: 0.61
Now: 0.89
Low: 0.61
Now: 0.89
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 37.9 | ADX (14) | 21.0 |
| 50d MA | 1.00 | 200d MA | 0.87 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.88 | Resistance | 1.26 |
| ATR Volatility | 9.07%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIL | -22.6% | +25.5% | +12.0% | -3.7% |
| BTC | -7.0% | +1.3% | +26.5% | +19.8% |
| ETH | -14.4% | -5.5% | +35.0% | +18.1% |
| SOL | -17.5% | +3.1% | +43.1% | +22.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
11,661
RETURN
-2.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-25.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIL | -2.8% | -69.5% | -25.5% | 51 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIL)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -3.7% | 6,875 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -12.1% | 10,542 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -9.4% | 10,878 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -9.9% | 10,818 |
FIL Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.73 (-18.1%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (12.0%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (12.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.94 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.99 | +5.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 1.05 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 1.14 | +8.4% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.14 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.06 | -6.8% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 1.06 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 1.04 | -1.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 1.03 | +1.4% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 1.07 | |
| 2026-10-22 | SELL | 0.98 | -8.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-27 11:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Holding a coin down 89% from 8.38 because it trades 2 cents above the 200d MA at 0.87. rules are rules i guess, that stop at 0.73 decides everything
^ the 2 year backtest did -2.8% while buy and hold lost 69.5%, id take that deal any cycle. the boring system wins
the 0.73 stop sits 16% under a 0.87 entry on a coin that moves 9% a day. one spicy red candle and its gone lol
both profit targets are literally 1.00 lol. a 12% upside twice on an asset moving 9% a day is noise trading at best
counterpoint: in stage 1 bottoming you take the free 12% twice because the system says trend beats conviction. but ya, 1.00 as both targets is thin
3 bull factors vs 4 bear and the verdict is HOLD with a 12k deployment. that -2.8% backtest is the only thing keeping this call honest imo