Why Galaxy Research Says Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Officially Over — and What It Means for Everyday Investors

Bitcoin may have officially put its brutal downturn in the rearview mirror, as institutional research firm Galaxy Research declared that the cryptocurrency’s macro bear market ended on June 30, 2026. With Bitcoin now trading steadily at 80,821, USD veteran long-term holders have dramatically curbed their selling, technical safety nets are holding firm, and on-chain data suggests the market has transitioned from panic into a quiet accumulation phase where patient investors build positions before the next major move.

By Marcus Johnson | October 28, 2026

The Hook: Why Wall Street Analysts Believe the Worst Is Behind Us

If you have opened your crypto portfolio this month and felt a sense of fatigue, you are certainly not alone. After sliding from its previous peak of 126,080 USD reached in October 2025 down to a summer low of 76,540 USD, Bitcoin has spent recent weeks chopping sideways around the 80,800 USD mark. October is typically celebrated by crypto enthusiasts as a month of explosive gains, but this year has delivered a sluggish 4% decline over the month, leaving many everyday investors wondering if another painful drop is waiting around the corner.

However, according to a landmark research report published this week by Galaxy Research, that lingering anxiety is masking a dramatic fundamental turnaround. The research team, led by Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn, issued a definitive note titled “Why Now Is the Time to Add and Hold BTC.” Their core conclusion is clear: the macro bear market officially ended on June 30, 2026, when Bitcoin touched 76,540 USD, marking a peak-to-trough decline of approximately 36%.

What does this mean for your hard-earned money? In simple terms, while retail sentiment remains cautious, professional institutions believe the market has moved into an accumulation phase. Think of an accumulation phase like wholesale warehouse buying before merchandise returns to retail shelves: prices stabilize, sellers run out of inventory, and larger buyers quietly stock up while the broader public is looking away.

On-Chain Evidence: Old Hands Stop Selling and Technical Walls Hold

To understand why analysts are making such a confident call, you do not need complex mathematical models. You just need to look at on-chain data — the public digital ledger that tracks how actual coins move between wallets, much like inspecting the shipping manifests of an open economy. The data reveals that the relentless wave of selling that pushed prices down earlier this year has largely dried up.

According to figures highlighted by Galaxy Research, the behavior of veteran investors — often called long-term holders — has shifted decisively from taking profits back to locking coins away in long-term cold storage:

• Selling pressure from older coins has collapsed — Bitcoins that had sat unmoved in wallets for five years or more were circulating at an average rate of 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, down by roughly half from 67,000 BTC per month in 2024.
• Speculative leverage has been flushed out — Fast-money hedge funds and short-term basis traders have cut their futures and exchange-traded product exposure by more than half compared to the peak in late 2025, removing risky borrowing that often triggers flash crashes.
• Critical price trendlines have been reclaimed — Bitcoin has successfully logged five consecutive weekly closes above its 50-week moving average, breaking a grueling 44-week streak of trading beneath this key baseline.
• The long-term foundation held firm — During the summer pullback, the network held securely above its 200-week moving average, a historic trendline that has marked structural floor support in every major market cycle.

Think of moving averages like speed limits on a highway: when a car stays below the pace car for 44 weeks, traffic is sluggish and losing momentum. Breaking back above that speed marker and maintaining it for more than a month signals that traffic has finally cleared and forward momentum is rebuilding.

The Core Conflict: Skeptical Retail Faces Quiet Accumulation

Despite these encouraging signals, the market is trapped in a classic tug-of-war. On one side are everyday retail holders who feel bruised by months of choppy price action. With institutional spot ETF flows fluctuating and short-term traders reacting nervously to global headlines, many individual savers have hesitated to deploy fresh capital, waiting for absolute certainty before jumping back in.

On the other side are large institutional allocators who recognize that waiting for “total certainty” usually means paying much higher prices. History shows that bear market bottoms are never accompanied by ringing bells or universal celebration; they occur when the market simply stops going down despite neutral or negative headlines. Because long-term holders have stopped dumping tens of thousands of coins onto exchanges each month, the supply available for purchase is growing tight.

This dynamic creates a disconnect between everyday sentiment and underlying network reality. When speculative leverage drops by more than half, the market becomes significantly more resilient. Without fragile margin positions waiting to be liquidated, sudden dips become buying opportunities for patient capital rather than the start of a free fall.

Market Implications: Rate Decisions, National Debt, and Your Wallet

Beyond internal crypto network health, broader macroeconomic forces are shaping the next phase of this cycle. This week, global markets are hyper-focused on central banking policy as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to deliver its latest interest rate decision. When central banks maintain elevated interest rates, keeping money in short-term government bonds or high-yield savings accounts seems appealing to cautious savers. However, any hint of monetary easing or future liquidity injections quickly rekindles demand for hard assets.

More importantly, Galaxy Research emphasized that government finances provide a powerful long-term tailwind for Bitcoin. With the United States continuing to run multi-trillion-dollar sovereign deficits at high bond yields, concerns over currency debasement remain a dominant theme among corporate treasuries and family offices. When governments continually issue massive amounts of fresh debt, the purchasing power of paper currency steadily erodes. In that environment, a digitally scarce asset with an unalterable supply cap functions as an insurance policy against monetary dilution.

For your personal wallet, this macro backdrop provides crucial perspective. Short-term daily price swings can easily distract you from the larger picture. While Bitcoin trading at 80,821 USD may feel quiet compared to the frenzy of a runaway bull market, it represents a resilient, higher base of support that protects purchasing power against persistent fiat inflation.

The Verdict: Navigating Bitcoin’s Quiet Accumulation Zone

The takeaway for regular investors is straightforward: the most dangerous phase of the market downturn appears to be behind us. The technical data confirms that Bitcoin survived its stress test by defending its multi-year support levels, while on-chain statistics prove that committed holders are refusing to part with their coins at current valuations.

That does not mean prices will surge overnight in a straight vertical line. Accumulation phases often require patience, testing investor discipline through weeks of sideways consolidation. Rather than attempting to guess daily price fluctuations or chase fast-money trends, everyday investors benefit most from maintaining a structured, long-term plan. Understanding that institutional research teams now see 76,540 USD as the durable structural floor gives long-term savers the confidence to focus on steady holding rather than emotional trading.

The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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