Deep Dive Analysis
Gram (prev. Toncoin) (GRAM)
2026-10-29 18:00 UTC · Aisha Okonkwo · 10,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.21
1.21
52W HIGH
1.84
1.84
DRAWDOWN
-33.9%
-33.9%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 2 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (35.4), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 31.3), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.79)
GRAM Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 1.21
Low: 0.00
Now: 1.21
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 35.4 | ADX (14) | 31.3 |
| 50d MA | 1.40 | 200d MA | 1.02 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.19 | Resistance | 1.58 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.54%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| GRAM | -12.0% | -14.3% | -25.5% | +39284.3% |
| BTC | +0.1% | +1.8% | +27.2% | +20.2% |
| ETH | -4.2% | -5.7% | +36.1% | +20.2% |
| SOL | -6.3% | -6.1% | +40.2% | +21.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 10,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
2,507
RETURN
-74.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-78.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| GRAM | -74.9% | +31627.7% | -78.6% | 36 | 22% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (GRAM)
If you had deployed 10,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +39284.3% | 3,969,334 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +39727.8% | 3,982,782 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +32779.7% | 3,287,967 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +29873.3% | 2,997,329 |
GRAM Deployment Plan — 10,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Aisha Okonkwo (Yield / Staking Focused). If you’re managing a 10,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 2,500 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.10 (-9.1%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-17.6%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-17.6%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Yield / Staking Focused.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-04-16 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-17 | SELL | 0.00 | -18.7% |
| 2026-04-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-26 | SELL | 0.00 | -27.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-05-01 | SELL | 0.00 | -7.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | BUY | 1.50 | |
| 2026-07-27 | SELL | 1.46 | -3.0% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 1.45 | |
| 2026-10-08 | SELL | 1.38 | -4.7% |
| 2026-10-09 | BUY | 1.45 | |
| 2026-10-12 | SELL | 1.36 | -6.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-29 18:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
RSI 35.4 while price holds above the 200d is the only thing keeping this at HOLD. weak but not dead
the rebrand to GRAM still confuses half my groupchat lol. bottoming above the 200d is fair though
1.84 high to 1.21, HOLD checks out. not touching it until the 50d gets reclaimed though
8 bear factors and the call is still HOLD lol. that 1.19 support is doing all the heavy lifting here, one clean break below and this flips to avoid real quick
8 bear factors vs a HOLD is basically the system trusting the 200d more than everything else combined. one clean daily close under 1.19 and this reprints as avoid, agreed
same read. stuck under the 50d at 1.40 while the 200d at 1.02 catches it, thats just chop city. not touching it until it reclaims 1.40 with some volume
the 1.02-1.40 band is basically a 37% range, chop punishes both sides of it. reclaim of the 50d with OBV flattening out is the only entry trigger worth taking here
stage 1 bottoming with 4.54% daily ATR, your stop is basically a coin flip at that volatility. i will wait for the range to compress first
4.5% ATR against a 9% stop means one wrong candle takes you out before the thesis even gets tested. waiting for the range to compress costs nothing