This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Chainlink (LINK)
USD 11.56
USD 30.81
-62.5%
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, MACD bull cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, far below high, vol 1.23x on down day
Low: USD 7.02
Now: USD 11.56
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 46.5 | ADX (14) | 24.1 |
| 50d MA | USD 12.63 | 200d MA | USD 10.06 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | USD 10.31 | Resistance | USD 14.02 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.4%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| LINK | -7.2% | -2.3% | +58.6% | +32.7% |
| BTC | -2.3% | -1.3% | +33.9% | +21.8% |
| ETH | -1.2% | -3.9% | +53.4% | +24.9% |
| SOL | -8.3% | -7.1% | +37.1% | +17.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 30,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| LINK | +13.2% | -24.7% | -37.8% | 49 | 43% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (LINK)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 30,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +32.7% | USD 23,565 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +20.9% | USD 36,257 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +10.0% | USD 33,001 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +14.1% | USD 34,221 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify LINK. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 10.31 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 14.02 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 10.31 (-10.8% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.6238 (5.4%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | USD 8.29 | |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | USD 8.77 | +5.8% |
| 2026-08-12 | BUY | USD 8.67 | |
| 2026-08-13 | SELL | USD 8.87 | +2.3% |
| 2026-08-14 | BUY | USD 8.97 | |
| 2026-08-15 | SELL | USD 9.46 | +5.5% |
| 2026-08-16 | BUY | USD 9.38 | |
| 2026-08-17 | SELL | USD 9.54 | +1.6% |
| 2026-08-18 | BUY | USD 9.54 | |
| 2026-08-19 | SELL | USD 10.54 | +10.6% |
| 2026-08-25 | BUY | USD 11.28 | |
| 2026-10-14 | SELL | USD 12.42 | +10.1% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
62.5% off the high and its still rated Stage 1 Bottoming with 5 bearish factors. meanwhile golden cross, MACD bull cross, price above the 200d. mixed signals is an understatement lol
that is the whole Stage 1 deal tho, bottoming is messy by definition. and the 30.81 high is a wall of bagholder supply, nobody is punching through that in a week
LINK at 11.56, above the 200d but under the 50d. i keep buying small chunks anyway. someone has to feed the data to all these chains, oracles are not optional plumbing
Marta the plumbing argument only pays off if usage actually pushes token demand. until ccip revenue shows up in the chart we are all just donating politely