This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
LEO Token (LEO)
USD 9.35
USD 10.39
-10.0%
Stage 3 (Topping)
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (64.5)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, strong bear trend (ADX 26.2), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.46)
Low: USD 6.04
Now: USD 9.35
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 64.5 | ADX (14) | 26.2 |
| 50d MA | USD 9.04 | 200d MA | USD 9.53 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 8.63 | Resistance | USD 9.49 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.09%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| LEO | +3.6% | -0.2% | -0.7% | +6.2% |
| BTC | -2.3% | -1.3% | +33.9% | +21.8% |
| ETH | -1.2% | -3.9% | +53.4% | +24.9% |
| SOL | -8.3% | -7.1% | +37.1% | +17.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 35,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| LEO | -30.2% | +6.1% | -31.4% | 56 | 41% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (LEO)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 35,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +6.2% | USD 37,682 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +7.7% | USD 37,694 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +0.9% | USD 35,306 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -0.5% | USD 34,836 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify LEO. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 8.63 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 9.49 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 9.14 (-2.2% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.1022 (1.09%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Midrange |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-07-25 | BUY | USD 9.71 | |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | USD 9.41 | -3.0% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | USD 9.68 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | USD 9.61 | -0.7% |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | USD 9.61 | |
| 2026-09-01 | SELL | USD 9.39 | -2.3% |
| 2026-10-31 | BUY | USD 9.40 | |
| 2026-11-01 | SELL | USD 9.40 | -0.0% |
| 2026-11-02 | BUY | USD 9.39 | |
| 2026-11-03 | SELL | USD 9.29 | -1.1% |
| 2026-11-04 | BUY | USD 9.32 | |
| 2026-11-05 | SELL | USD 9.35 | +0.3% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
the model returned -30.2% while plain buy and hold did +6.1%? and there are still 4 bullish factors listed. 56 trades for a 41% win rate, the exchange is the only one winning here
trend following always eats dust in sideways chop like this. also LEO moves with Bitfinex volumes, the 50d/200d crossovers barely matter for an exchange utility token
DCA 4 buys at +7.7% beating lump sum and the whole trend model is the funniest row on this page. boring wins again