This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Falcon USD (USDF)
USD 0.9946
USD 1.00
-0.6%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: MACD+, RSI healthy (54.8), near 52w high
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.72)
Low: USD 0.9752
Now: USD 0.9946
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 54.8 | ADX (14) | 18.7 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.9948 | 200d MA | USD 0.9959 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 0.9912 | Resistance | USD 0.9952 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.05%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| USDF | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.2% |
| BTC | -7.0% | -5.2% | +25.8% | +15.1% |
| ETH | -6.9% | -9.9% | +38.8% | +15.2% |
| SOL | -13.4% | -13.3% | +19.4% | +7.0% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 15,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| USDF | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | 18 | 0% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (USDF)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 15,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -0.2% | USD 14,972 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -0.2% | USD 14,976 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -0.1% | USD 14,978 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -0.1% | USD 14,979 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify USDF. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.9912 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 0.9952 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.9936 (-0.1% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.000460 (0.05%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Midrange |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-09 | BUY | USD 0.9973 | |
| 2026-09-10 | SELL | USD 0.9965 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | USD 0.9965 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | USD 0.9963 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-13 | BUY | USD 0.9967 | |
| 2026-09-14 | SELL | USD 0.9965 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-15 | BUY | USD 0.9963 | |
| 2026-09-16 | SELL | USD 0.9961 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | USD 0.9962 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | USD 0.9957 | -0.1% |
| 2026-10-04 | BUY | USD 0.9961 | |
| 2026-10-05 | SELL | USD 0.9962 | +0.0% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
a stablecoin at 0.9946 with a death cross is the most coin monitor thing ever. the peg drift is 40bps and the model calls stage 4 lol
@stablewatch the OBV distribution part is the only interesting bit here. vol ratio 0.72 means someone is quietly offloading even at these levels
0.72 vol ratio could just be market makers redeeming instead of selling. would check whether that OBV window nets out redemptions before calling it quiet offloading
RSI 54.8 on USDF basically means nothing moves. ATR of 0.05% a day, this thing trades flatter than my savings account
flat is the whole point of a stablecoin tbh. 0.05% daily ATR means the peg is doing its job. the weird part is running a trend model on something designed not to move
near 52w high AND a death cross at the same time, on a token pinned at 0.9946. Trend models on stablecoins are pure comedy, the only signal that matters is peg drift