This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
PAX Gold (PAXG)
USD 4,062.75
USD 5,622.81
-27.7%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: MACD+, RSI healthy (51.1), strong bull trend (ADX 28.1)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.65)
Low: USD 2,549.64
Now: USD 4,062.75
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 51.1 | ADX (14) | 28.1 |
| 50d MA | USD 4,130.39 | 200d MA | USD 4,289.19 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 3,885.68 | Resistance | USD 4,205.44 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.36%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| PAXG | -2.1% | -8.3% | +1.4% | -25.3% |
| BTC | -7.0% | -5.2% | +25.8% | +15.1% |
| ETH | -6.9% | -9.9% | +38.8% | +15.2% |
| SOL | -13.4% | -13.3% | +19.4% | +7.0% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 15,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| PAXG | +28.6% | +21.0% | -12.4% | 32 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (PAXG)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 15,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -25.3% | USD 15,278 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -9.2% | USD 13,615 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -8.6% | USD 13,716 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -8.3% | USD 13,750 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify PAXG. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 3,885.68 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 4,205.44 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 3,952.05 (-2.7% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 55.35 (1.36%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | USD 4,447.16 | |
| 2026-09-01 | SELL | USD 4,339.46 | -2.4% |
| 2026-09-02 | BUY | USD 4,393.14 | |
| 2026-09-03 | SELL | USD 4,479.80 | +2.0% |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | USD 4,432.97 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | USD 4,432.44 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | USD 4,420.90 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | USD 4,421.69 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | USD 4,355.55 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | USD 4,393.83 | +0.9% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | USD 4,354.67 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | USD 4,354.55 | -0.0% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
tokenized gold printing a death cross, what a time to be alive. below the 50d at 4130 and OBV dumping, next real test is that 3885 support imo
1.36% daily ATR on a gold token is basically tech stock behavior now lol. and yeah OBV plus that 0.65 volume ratio, nobody is buying this dip
Down 25% on the year while spot bullion sits near highs means the premium got crushed, pure outflows from the token itself. I will watch whether 4,205 resistance reclaims before caring about a bounce.