This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL)
USD 0.0916
USD 0.1826
-49.8%
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.84)
Low: USD 0.0685
Now: USD 0.0916
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 47.6 | ADX (14) | 13.6 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.0996 | 200d MA | USD 0.0896 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | USD 0.0872 | Resistance | USD 0.1041 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.0%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| POL | -1.1% | -3.6% | +28.6% | -9.3% |
| BTC | -7.8% | -4.7% | +25.7% | +10.5% |
| ETH | -10.8% | -13.9% | +33.3% | +8.2% |
| SOL | -16.3% | -15.5% | +13.5% | +0.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 30,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| POL | -14.2% | +4.9% | -22.7% | 15 | 40% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (POL)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 30,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -9.3% | USD 31,458 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +3.7% | USD 31,125 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +7.3% | USD 32,178 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +6.8% | USD 32,043 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify POL. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.0872 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 0.1041 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.0861 (-6.0% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.002753 (3.0%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | USD 0.0979 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | USD 0.0984 | +0.5% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | USD 0.0950 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | USD 0.0955 | +0.6% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | USD 0.0979 | |
| 2026-09-11 | SELL | USD 0.0921 | -6.0% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | USD 0.0974 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | USD 0.0966 | -0.8% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | USD 0.0959 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | USD 0.0966 | +0.7% |
| 2026-09-16 | BUY | USD 0.0931 | |
| 2026-10-08 | SELL | USD 0.1026 | +10.3% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
adx 13.6 and the model calls it neutral, yeah that tracks. pol pinned between 0.0872 support and the falling 50d at 0.0996, no trade here
golden cross printed and macd is positive but price still under the 50d. i’d want a reclaim of 0.0996 before trusting stage 1 bottoming talk
DCA with 6 buys returned +7.3% while lump sum did -9.3%. Rare to see dollar cost averaging win that clearly over a full year, but with a 50% drawdown it makes sense
because half your buys landed under 9 cents while it round tripped. that +10.3% september trade in the log was the only decent hit lol