This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
KuCoin (KCS)
USD 6.90
USD 16.23
-57.5%
Stage 3 (Topping)
Bullish factors: golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, MACD-, RSI weak (37.7), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.67)
Low: USD 6.00
Now: USD 6.90
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 37.7 | ADX (14) | 13.1 |
| 50d MA | USD 7.36 | 200d MA | USD 7.26 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 6.77 | Resistance | USD 7.98 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.3%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| KCS | -7.1% | -1.6% | +0.9% | -11.2% |
| BTC | -7.8% | -4.7% | +25.7% | +10.5% |
| ETH | -10.8% | -13.9% | +33.3% | +8.2% |
| SOL | -16.3% | -15.5% | +13.5% | +0.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 35,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| KCS | -22.3% | -39.3% | -40.6% | 69 | 39% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (KCS)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 35,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -11.2% | USD 18,400 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -20.2% | USD 27,936 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -20.6% | USD 27,779 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -16.2% | USD 29,338 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify KCS. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 6.77 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 7.98 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 6.45 (-6.6% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.2275 (3.3%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-10-19 | BUY | USD 7.43 | |
| 2026-10-20 | SELL | USD 7.37 | -0.8% |
| 2026-10-21 | BUY | USD 7.41 | |
| 2026-10-22 | SELL | USD 7.34 | -0.9% |
| 2026-10-23 | BUY | USD 7.36 | |
| 2026-10-24 | SELL | USD 7.33 | -0.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | BUY | USD 7.40 | |
| 2026-10-27 | SELL | USD 7.48 | +1.1% |
| 2026-10-28 | BUY | USD 7.57 | |
| 2026-10-29 | SELL | USD 7.16 | -5.4% |
| 2026-11-04 | BUY | USD 7.46 | |
| 2026-11-05 | SELL | USD 7.18 | -3.8% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
-57.5% off the high and the model still has 7 bearish factors vs 2 bullish. obv down with vol ratio 0.67, that’s distribution not accumulation
The 2y backtest did -22.3% with a 39% win rate across 69 trades. It beat buy and hold but you still paid for the privilege. These MA crossover systems bleed in chop
^ this. look at the trade log, four buy/sell flips in a week at 7.40 and all it did was bleed fees
Invalidation at 6.45 is the number to watch imo, loses that and 6.00 comes back fast