This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Algorand (ALGO)
USD 0.0931
USD 0.6028
-84.6%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (40.4), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.68)
Low: USD 0.0758
Now: USD 0.0931
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 40.4 | ADX (14) | 22.6 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.1110 | 200d MA | USD 0.0996 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 0.0894 | Resistance | USD 0.1333 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.94%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ALGO | -15.2% | -4.5% | +10.3% | +8.0% |
| BTC | -7.8% | -4.7% | +25.7% | +10.5% |
| ETH | -10.8% | -13.9% | +33.3% | +8.2% |
| SOL | -16.3% | -15.5% | +13.5% | +0.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 15,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ALGO | -11.4% | -57.2% | -34.5% | 60 | 48% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ALGO)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 15,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +8.0% | USD 7,399 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -16.3% | USD 12,560 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -15.5% | USD 12,676 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -13.7% | USD 12,949 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify ALGO. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.0894 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 0.1333 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.0802 (-13.9% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.006456 (6.94%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | USD 0.1043 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | USD 0.1133 | +8.6% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | USD 0.1164 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | USD 0.1183 | +1.7% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | USD 0.1195 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | USD 0.1360 | +13.8% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | USD 0.1253 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | USD 0.1240 | -1.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | USD 0.1224 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | USD 0.1274 | +4.1% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | USD 0.1315 | |
| 2026-10-22 | SELL | USD 0.1067 | -18.9% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
1 bullish signal out of 9 and its a golden cross that nobody asked for. stage 4 downtrend at 0.0931 while the 52w high sits at 0.6028, brutal chart to hold
golden cross while price sits under the falling 50d, the model is arguing with itself. stage 4 with extra steps lol
Bought in the 2021 hype around 1.60 and averaged down twice since. Seeing -84.6% drawdown printed like this honestly stings less than I expected. Support at 0.0894 is the line I am watching.
respect for still holding nils, most alts that got listed in that batch are down worse. though adx at 22.6 says this downtrend barely has momentum, chop down to 0.0894 more likely than a crash
averaging down twice from 1.60 is a sunk cost masterclass. sorry nils, the 2021 roster aint walking back thru that door