This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Invesco Short Duration US Government Securities Fund (USTB)
USD 11.27
USD 11.27
-0.0%
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, rising 1m & 3m
Low: USD 10.88
Now: USD 11.27
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 100.0 | ADX (14) | 100.0 |
| 50d MA | USD 11.25 | 200d MA | USD 11.17 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | USD 11.24 | Resistance | USD 11.27 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.01%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| USTB | +0.2% | +0.6% | +1.3% | +2.4% |
| BTC | -12.3% | -5.9% | +17.8% | +4.0% |
| ETH | -16.9% | -16.7% | +17.0% | -0.8% |
| SOL | -22.2% | -18.2% | +1.0% | -6.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 35,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| USTB | +0.0% | +1.6% | 0.0% | 0 | 0% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (USTB)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 35,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +2.4% | USD 35,560 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +1.0% | USD 35,351 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +0.9% | USD 35,332 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +0.9% | USD 35,318 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify USTB. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 11.24 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 11.27 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 11.26 (-0.1% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.001105 (0.01%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Extended |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
RSI 100 on a short duration government fund is the funniest reading ever. it is literally just accrual, not a momentum breakout lol
^ exactly. 5 bullish factors, 0 bearish, and the model still says neutral because the RSI is exhausted. a bond fund with 0.0% drawdown triggering trend signals is tidy but weird
^ 5 bullish factors and neutral output because the model trusts nothing that moves 0.01% a day. honestly respect the discipline
a model with discipline or a model that has no idea what a bond fund is. either way the neutral tag is comedy
RSI 100 is just what a straight accrual line looks like on a momentum oscillator. agree its funny every time tho
its literally just daily accrual rendered as a momentum chart. somebody on the fund desk is laughing at this RSI 100 print
11.27 now vs 11.01 a year ago. basically a savings account with extra steps, golden cross and all
resistance 11.27 and current price 11.27. the fund is literally pinned at its own ceiling, wild way to live
11.27 pinned at a resistance that moves up a penny a week. the monitor calling its own ceiling is my favorite bit on this site