Bitcoin staged a remarkable rally in the final week of April 2020, surging past $7,800 and notching gains of nearly 12% from its weekly low to high. The flagship cryptocurrency appeared to be building momentum ahead of its much-anticipated block reward halving, then just over two weeks away, even as traditional markets continued to reel from the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.
TL;DR
- Bitcoin jumped nearly 12% during the week, surpassing the $7,800 mark
- The upcoming halving (May 11) was driving significant market anticipation
- Former hedge fund manager Raoul Pal called BTC “the biggest trade of our lifetimes”
- Experts remained divided on whether the halving was already priced in
- Bitcoin continued to outperform the S&P 500 during COVID-19 market turbulence
Bitcoin Defies Market Turmoil
The week of April 27, 2020, will be remembered for many things — not least of which was the unprecedented moment when WTI crude oil futures went negative. Yet amid the chaos in traditional markets, Bitcoin quietly posted gains of approximately 9% week-over-week, adding to a steady recovery from the “Black Thursday” crash of March 12 that had sent BTC spiraling below $4,000.
On April 23, Bitcoin had already witnessed a pre-halving pump that pushed its value past the $7,500 threshold, signaling growing bullish sentiment among traders. By April 27, BTC was trading at approximately $7,795, firmly establishing its position as the best-performing major asset class during one of the most turbulent periods in modern financial history.
The cryptocurrency’s resilience stood in stark contrast to the S&P 500 and other leading stock market indices, which Bitcoin convincingly outperformed during this period. With central banks around the world deploying unprecedented monetary stimulus — the Federal Reserve printing money at historic rates — an increasing number of investors began looking toward scarce digital assets as a potential hedge against inflation.
Raoul Pal’s Bold $10 Trillion Bitcoin Prediction
Perhaps the most attention-grabbing development of the week came from Raoul Pal, a former macro hedge fund manager and the founder of Real Vision. In the April 2020 issue of his “Global Macro Investor” (GMI) newsletter, Pal laid out a comprehensive 120-page thesis explaining why he believed Bitcoin could eventually reach a $10 trillion market capitalization — and a price of $1 million per coin.
Pal, who called the COVID-19 pandemic “the biggest event of all of our lifetimes,” argued that Bitcoin represented “the future of our entire medium of exchange system, and of money itself and the platform on which it operates.” He positioned BTC alongside gold as one of only two assets capable of protecting investors from what he saw as the potential gradual collapse of the existing financial architecture.
“I think this is the biggest trade of our lifetimes and just at the time when we need it the most,” Pal wrote. “We all need to have Bitcoin.” Even if BTC went lower first, he viewed that as an opportunity to accumulate more.
Halving Hype Meets Cautious Realism
Despite the mounting excitement, not everyone was convinced that the upcoming halving would deliver an immediate price explosion. Scott Freeman, co-founder of JST Capital, told reporters that having spoken with miners and institutional investors, the consistent message was that the halving would be “somewhat of a nonevent” in terms of price action.
“The halving has been on everyone’s radar screen for a long time and as such, the effect on markets should already be factored into the price of BTC,” Freeman noted. He acknowledged that profitability challenges for miners were real, but expected that most mining operations had already adjusted their business models accordingly.
Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares, took a similarly measured stance, jokingly suggesting that “the Bitcoin rally around the halving has been canceled until further notice” due to the coronavirus situation. However, she pointed to tangible shifts driving demand, including increased utility for Bitcoin beyond speculation and a growing amount of institutional interest, with derivatives markets increasingly driving price discovery.
Looking Beyond the Halving
Historical patterns offered reasons for both optimism and caution. Jose Llisterri, co-founder of crypto exchange Interdax, highlighted that in each of the previous halving events, the BTC/USD pair tended to approach its all-time high approximately 16 months later. If the trend repeated, a new all-time high could materialize around September 2021 — a prediction that would eventually prove remarkably prescient.
However, Llisterri also noted that the landscape had changed significantly. The emergence of a robust derivatives market — including futures and perpetual swaps — meant that the traditional dynamic of miners accumulating BTC before a supply squeeze might not produce the same dramatic effects seen during the 2013 and 2017 bull runs.
Trent Barnes of ZeroCap encapsulated the balanced view many analysts held: “We expect intense short-term volatility following the halving, both topside and downside. Longer-term, we see price appreciation in line with the stock-to-flow model.” Barnes added that he wouldn’t be surprised to see Bitcoin “fly under the radar of the general public” while savvy investors continued accumulating in the background.
Why This Matters
The final week of April 2020 represented a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class. The cryptocurrency was demonstrating resilience in the face of a global crisis that had devastated traditional markets, while high-profile macro investors were beginning to treat it as a legitimate portfolio allocation rather than a speculative curiosity. The debate over whether the halving was priced in would continue for weeks, but the underlying fundamentals — growing institutional interest, increasing derivatives infrastructure, and Bitcoin’s proven scarcity model — were laying the groundwork for what would become one of the most dramatic bull runs in crypto history.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Raoul Pal calling it the trade of our lifetimes at $7,800 aged like fine wine. wonder what he thinks at current prices
halving was May 11 and we pumped from 7.8k to 9k before it even happened. buy the rumor sell the news worked perfectly until it didnt
Raoul Pal calling BTC at $7,800 the biggest trade of our lifetimes with the halving two weeks away. dude was spot on
Raoul Pal calling it the biggest trade of our lifetimes while BTC sat at $7800. the man saw something most of us didnt
Raoul Pal calling 7800 the biggest trade while WTI crashed to negative 37. the man saw the halving supply squeeze before anyone in tradfi took btc seriously
Raoul Pal called it right. went all in on BTC when most macro guys were still laughing at it. the oil crash was the ultimate contrarian signal
oil going negative the same week BTC ripped 12%. if that wasnt the signal to buy risk assets nothing was
halving at 6.25 to 3.125 reward and price was 7800. we will never see those multiples again. diminishing returns each cycle
WTI went negative the same week BTC ripped 12 percent. the contrast between real assets imploding and digital assets surging was surreal to live through
everyone debating if the halving was priced in. spoiler: it wasnt. the real pump came 6 months later
BTC at 7800 in April 2020 feels like a different universe. bought my first whole coin that month because the halving narrative was too strong to ignore
BTC at 7800 with 12 percent weekly gains while WTI went to negative 37. the halving was 2 weeks away and nobody on crypto twitter shut up about it. turned out to be the best buying window of the cycle
bought my first whole BTC during this week. oil going negative scared everyone but btc just kept climbing
dust_hodler buying a whole BTC during the week oil went negative is the most contrarian thing i have ever heard. congrats on the entry
respect on the first whole BTC. i was too busy watching WTI crash to negative $37 to even think about buying
buying your first whole btc while WTI crashed to negative 37 is peak contrarian energy. most people were panic selling everything
WTI at negative $37 and BTC quietly grinding up to 7800. if that doesnt tell you which asset class has the stronger thesis nothing will
BTC grinding up while oil went negative was the moment a lot of macro investors started taking crypto seriously. the non-correlation spoke louder than any whitepaper
Dieter M. the decoupling narrative was strong that week but BTC still dumped to 3800 in march. the real signal was BTC recovering while oil could not find a floor. different asset different trajectory
Dieter M. WTI going to negative $37 while BTC quietly climbed to $7,800. that was the moment crypto decoupled from tradfi chaos
WTI at negative 37 while BTC quietly ground to 7800. the decoupling was so obvious in real time and most people were too busy panic selling everything to notice
Raoul Pal calling 7800 the biggest trade while oil crashed was contrarian gold. halving 2 weeks away and nobody in tradfi cared yet
BTC at 7800 right before the May 2020 halving. Raoul Pal calling it the biggest trade of our lifetimes was peak COVID era maximalism. he was directionally right but the timing was brutal for anyone who leveraged in
halcing_nostalgia Pal was right about the direction but the real signal was WTI crude going negative the same week. when oil literally costs less than zero and BTC holds 7800 that was the bottom confirmation
12 percent weekly gain while the S&P was still in freefall. the decoupling narrative was born here even if it took another year to actually play out