Bitcoin staged a remarkable rally in the final week of April 2020, surging past $7,800 and notching gains of nearly 12% from its weekly low to high. The flagship cryptocurrency appeared to be building momentum ahead of its much-anticipated block reward halving, then just over two weeks away, even as traditional markets continued to reel from the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.
TL;DR
- Bitcoin jumped nearly 12% during the week, surpassing the $7,800 mark
- The upcoming halving (May 11) was driving significant market anticipation
- Former hedge fund manager Raoul Pal called BTC “the biggest trade of our lifetimes”
- Experts remained divided on whether the halving was already priced in
- Bitcoin continued to outperform the S&P 500 during COVID-19 market turbulence
Bitcoin Defies Market Turmoil
The week of April 27, 2020, will be remembered for many things — not least of which was the unprecedented moment when WTI crude oil futures went negative. Yet amid the chaos in traditional markets, Bitcoin quietly posted gains of approximately 9% week-over-week, adding to a steady recovery from the “Black Thursday” crash of March 12 that had sent BTC spiraling below $4,000.
On April 23, Bitcoin had already witnessed a pre-halving pump that pushed its value past the $7,500 threshold, signaling growing bullish sentiment among traders. By April 27, BTC was trading at approximately $7,795, firmly establishing its position as the best-performing major asset class during one of the most turbulent periods in modern financial history.
The cryptocurrency’s resilience stood in stark contrast to the S&P 500 and other leading stock market indices, which Bitcoin convincingly outperformed during this period. With central banks around the world deploying unprecedented monetary stimulus — the Federal Reserve printing money at historic rates — an increasing number of investors began looking toward scarce digital assets as a potential hedge against inflation.
Raoul Pal’s Bold $10 Trillion Bitcoin Prediction
Perhaps the most attention-grabbing development of the week came from Raoul Pal, a former macro hedge fund manager and the founder of Real Vision. In the April 2020 issue of his “Global Macro Investor” (GMI) newsletter, Pal laid out a comprehensive 120-page thesis explaining why he believed Bitcoin could eventually reach a $10 trillion market capitalization — and a price of $1 million per coin.
Pal, who called the COVID-19 pandemic “the biggest event of all of our lifetimes,” argued that Bitcoin represented “the future of our entire medium of exchange system, and of money itself and the platform on which it operates.” He positioned BTC alongside gold as one of only two assets capable of protecting investors from what he saw as the potential gradual collapse of the existing financial architecture.
“I think this is the biggest trade of our lifetimes and just at the time when we need it the most,” Pal wrote. “We all need to have Bitcoin.” Even if BTC went lower first, he viewed that as an opportunity to accumulate more.
Halving Hype Meets Cautious Realism
Despite the mounting excitement, not everyone was convinced that the upcoming halving would deliver an immediate price explosion. Scott Freeman, co-founder of JST Capital, told reporters that having spoken with miners and institutional investors, the consistent message was that the halving would be “somewhat of a nonevent” in terms of price action.
“The halving has been on everyone’s radar screen for a long time and as such, the effect on markets should already be factored into the price of BTC,” Freeman noted. He acknowledged that profitability challenges for miners were real, but expected that most mining operations had already adjusted their business models accordingly.
Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares, took a similarly measured stance, jokingly suggesting that “the Bitcoin rally around the halving has been canceled until further notice” due to the coronavirus situation. However, she pointed to tangible shifts driving demand, including increased utility for Bitcoin beyond speculation and a growing amount of institutional interest, with derivatives markets increasingly driving price discovery.
Looking Beyond the Halving
Historical patterns offered reasons for both optimism and caution. Jose Llisterri, co-founder of crypto exchange Interdax, highlighted that in each of the previous halving events, the BTC/USD pair tended to approach its all-time high approximately 16 months later. If the trend repeated, a new all-time high could materialize around September 2021 — a prediction that would eventually prove remarkably prescient.
However, Llisterri also noted that the landscape had changed significantly. The emergence of a robust derivatives market — including futures and perpetual swaps — meant that the traditional dynamic of miners accumulating BTC before a supply squeeze might not produce the same dramatic effects seen during the 2013 and 2017 bull runs.
Trent Barnes of ZeroCap encapsulated the balanced view many analysts held: “We expect intense short-term volatility following the halving, both topside and downside. Longer-term, we see price appreciation in line with the stock-to-flow model.” Barnes added that he wouldn’t be surprised to see Bitcoin “fly under the radar of the general public” while savvy investors continued accumulating in the background.
Why This Matters
The final week of April 2020 represented a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class. The cryptocurrency was demonstrating resilience in the face of a global crisis that had devastated traditional markets, while high-profile macro investors were beginning to treat it as a legitimate portfolio allocation rather than a speculative curiosity. The debate over whether the halving was priced in would continue for weeks, but the underlying fundamentals — growing institutional interest, increasing derivatives infrastructure, and Bitcoin’s proven scarcity model — were laying the groundwork for what would become one of the most dramatic bull runs in crypto history.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Raoul Pal calling $1M BTC and people laughed. The man was directionally right even if the timeline was off.
BTC up 12% while WTI crude went negative — that divergence was the moment a lot of macro investors started paying real attention to crypto.
Llisterri predicting new ATH around September 2021 based on 16 month post halving cycle was incredibly accurate
Meltem Demirors joking that the halving rally was canceled due to COVID turned out to be wrong but her point about derivatives driving price discovery was spot on.