On September 14, 2020, the Bitcoin options market sent a powerful signal about trader sentiment, with a wave of call options betting on prices well above the cryptocurrency’s all-time high. Data from analytics firm Skew.com revealed that the most active Bitcoin options contracts on Deribit were calls for $28,000, $32,000, and $36,000 expiring in December 2020 — all significantly above the $19,600 peak reached during the legendary 2017 bull run.
TL;DR
- Skew.com data showed $28K, $32K, and $36K December 2020 calls among the most active BTC options on Deribit
- 752 open positions for $36K calls, 462 for $32K, and 230 for $28K
- $750 million in open interest outstanding for end-of-month Bitcoin options expiry
- CME options market showed 5 calls for every 2 puts — strong bullish sentiment
- BTC spot price rose approximately 4% on the day, approaching $11,000
A Surge in Aggressive Call Options
The options activity on Deribit, which commanded roughly 79% of the total BTC options open interest according to its August 2020 newsletter, was striking in its boldness. The largest cluster of new positions was at the $36,000 strike, with 752 open contracts. Another 462 contracts targeted $32,000, and 230 were set at $28,000. These bets represented a remarkable conviction that Bitcoin could more than triple from its current levels around $10,680 within just a few months.
This wave of bullish positioning came on the heels of $570 million in notional BTC options contracts expiring on Deribit on August 28, which apparently did little to dampen trader enthusiasm. In fact, Skew.com noted that the market was already building toward another substantial expiry, with $750 million in open interest outstanding for the end of September.
Why Traders Were Feeling Bullish
Several macroeconomic factors were fueling the optimism. The U.S. Federal Reserve was scheduled to hold a critical two-day meeting starting Tuesday, September 15, with markets anticipating further discussion of monetary stimulus measures. The upcoming U.S. presidential election in November added another layer of uncertainty to the dollar, which had been showing signs of weakness.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Ecoinometrics noted that Bitcoin was in the process of flipping the $10,000 resistance level into support. After struggling below $10,000 for much of the summer, the cryptocurrency had held above that psychologically important threshold for seven consecutive days — a development that options traders appeared to take as a springboard for further gains.
CME Data Confirmed the Trend
The bullish sentiment was not limited to crypto-native platforms. Data from the CME Group, the regulated U.S. derivatives exchange, told a similar story. According to Ecoinometrics, CME Bitcoin options showed five calls for every two puts, indicating that institutional traders were also positioned for upside. The analysis noted that while some traders were buying near-term puts as protection against a short-term pullback, the longer-term bullish thesis remained firmly intact.
Why This Matters
The massive buildup of call options at strike prices far above Bitcoin’s then-current levels was more than just speculative exuberance. It reflected a growing conviction among both retail and institutional traders that the macroeconomic environment — characterized by unprecedented monetary stimulus, a weakening dollar, and increasing institutional adoption — was setting the stage for a significant Bitcoin rally. In hindsight, these traders were remarkably prescient: Bitcoin would go on to break $20,000 in December 2020 and enter one of the most dramatic bull runs in its history, surpassing $60,000 by early 2021. The September 14 options data stands as one of the earliest clear signals that smart money was positioning for a historic move.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
752 contracts at $36k strike when btc was at $10.6k. absolute madlads. and they were right lol, btc blew past $36k by december
$750M OI for sept expiry and everyone was still piling into dec calls. that kind of conviction in a 3 month timeframe is rare
5 calls for every 2 puts on CME. The institutional side was aggressively positioned too, not just retail degen plays on deribit.
people forget fed was about to meet and powell was dovish as hell. macro + options flow = loaded spring
skew data was so good back then. they caught the options flow before anyone else was talking about it. now everyone watches deribit OI