On September 14, 2020, the Bitcoin options market sent a powerful signal about trader sentiment, with a wave of call options betting on prices well above the cryptocurrency’s all-time high. Data from analytics firm Skew.com revealed that the most active Bitcoin options contracts on Deribit were calls for $28,000, $32,000, and $36,000 expiring in December 2020 — all significantly above the $19,600 peak reached during the legendary 2017 bull run.
TL;DR
- Skew.com data showed $28K, $32K, and $36K December 2020 calls among the most active BTC options on Deribit
- 752 open positions for $36K calls, 462 for $32K, and 230 for $28K
- $750 million in open interest outstanding for end-of-month Bitcoin options expiry
- CME options market showed 5 calls for every 2 puts — strong bullish sentiment
- BTC spot price rose approximately 4% on the day, approaching $11,000
A Surge in Aggressive Call Options
The options activity on Deribit, which commanded roughly 79% of the total BTC options open interest according to its August 2020 newsletter, was striking in its boldness. The largest cluster of new positions was at the $36,000 strike, with 752 open contracts. Another 462 contracts targeted $32,000, and 230 were set at $28,000. These bets represented a remarkable conviction that Bitcoin could more than triple from its current levels around $10,680 within just a few months.
This wave of bullish positioning came on the heels of $570 million in notional BTC options contracts expiring on Deribit on August 28, which apparently did little to dampen trader enthusiasm. In fact, Skew.com noted that the market was already building toward another substantial expiry, with $750 million in open interest outstanding for the end of September.
Why Traders Were Feeling Bullish
Several macroeconomic factors were fueling the optimism. The U.S. Federal Reserve was scheduled to hold a critical two-day meeting starting Tuesday, September 15, with markets anticipating further discussion of monetary stimulus measures. The upcoming U.S. presidential election in November added another layer of uncertainty to the dollar, which had been showing signs of weakness.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Ecoinometrics noted that Bitcoin was in the process of flipping the $10,000 resistance level into support. After struggling below $10,000 for much of the summer, the cryptocurrency had held above that psychologically important threshold for seven consecutive days — a development that options traders appeared to take as a springboard for further gains.
CME Data Confirmed the Trend
The bullish sentiment was not limited to crypto-native platforms. Data from the CME Group, the regulated U.S. derivatives exchange, told a similar story. According to Ecoinometrics, CME Bitcoin options showed five calls for every two puts, indicating that institutional traders were also positioned for upside. The analysis noted that while some traders were buying near-term puts as protection against a short-term pullback, the longer-term bullish thesis remained firmly intact.
Why This Matters
The massive buildup of call options at strike prices far above Bitcoin’s then-current levels was more than just speculative exuberance. It reflected a growing conviction among both retail and institutional traders that the macroeconomic environment — characterized by unprecedented monetary stimulus, a weakening dollar, and increasing institutional adoption — was setting the stage for a significant Bitcoin rally. In hindsight, these traders were remarkably prescient: Bitcoin would go on to break $20,000 in December 2020 and enter one of the most dramatic bull runs in its history, surpassing $60,000 by early 2021. The September 14 options data stands as one of the earliest clear signals that smart money was positioning for a historic move.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
752 open positions on $36K calls when BTC was at $11K. those traders were absolutely clairvoyant or just lucky
CME showing 5 calls for every 2 puts was the real institutional signal
spoiler: BTC hit $29K by end of December 2020. those $28K and $32K calls printed hard. the $36K ones needed another month
those dec 2020 calls were some of the best risk-reward trades in crypto history. $36K needed january but $28K ones were basically free money
audit_crane_ totally right, the 28K calls were the trade. 36K was a lottery ticket but 28K had actual risk-reward math behind it
audit_crane_ the 28K calls were basically free money but nobody had the conviction to size them. retail was traumatized from march 2020
vol_crush_ the 28K calls were basically free money but march 2020 PTSD was real. everyone who had conviction and sized properly made generational money
deribit_degen 752 positions on 36k calls at 11k btc wasnt clairvoyance it was institutions pricing the halving supply shock
not clairvoyant, just understood the supply shock narrative. halving plus institutional flows plus zero rates = obvious outcome
$36K calls when BTC was $11K? Those traders were absolutely insane
looking back at 752 open positions on 36K calls when BTC was 11K. those traders saw the supply shock before anyone else on CT noticed
retro_iv_ hindsight is easy but the premium on those calls was basically nothing. worst case you lose a few hundred bucks
Goro T. the premium on those $36K calls was basically pocket change. retrospect makes everyone a genius but the risk reward was insane
CME showing 5 calls for every 2 puts. institutional sentiment was clearly bullish even when retail was still traumatized from March 2020
Amara F. 5 calls for every 2 puts was the loudest institutional signal and crypto twitter completely missed it. too busy calling 11K a top
752 open positions for $36K calls when BTC was under 11K. those traders either had insane conviction or just disposable income
$750M in open interest for end-of-month expiry. the options market was quietly becoming the biggest driver of BTC price action
CME showing 5 calls for every 2 puts and nobody thought to flag this as excessive optimism? those December expiry dates aged like fine wine though
752 open positions on $36K calls when BTC was at $11K. that conviction either came from insane research or insider info on the institutional buy side
Skew showing that much call skew at $11K BTC was the clearest signal smart money knew something. retail was asleep at the wheel
Bojan T. skew data was the signal but nobody on ct was talking about it. retail found out when BTC was already at 20k
CME showing 5 calls for every 2 puts at $11K BTC was the loudest institutional signal of 2020. retail was too busy calling the top to notice
750M open interest on december expiry at 11K spot. options market was pricing a 3x move and nobody on crypto twitter believed it. shows where the actual smart money was
the 36K calls needed january 2021 to print but the 28K calls were basically free money at the premiums available. anyone who understood implied vol vs realized vol made 10x
10x is underselling it tbh. the people who rolled the dec 36Ks into jan expiry once grayscale flows showed up got a second 3x on the exact same thesis