The Current Meta
As Bitcoin hovers around $41,450 and the broader cryptocurrency market shows renewed signs of life, the familiar whispers of an impending bull cycle are growing louder. Total market capitalization stands at approximately $1.62 trillion, with Ethereum trading at $2,202 and altcoins like Solana ($68.54) and Cardano ($0.576) posting notable weekly gains. The impulse to chase every narrative is strong — but according to Anders Helseth, head of research at K33 Research, one corner of the crypto universe deserves particular caution: non-fungible tokens.
In a research note published on December 12, 2023, Helseth delivered a stark warning: “Stay away from the NFTs.” His thesis is rooted not in skepticism toward blockchain technology itself, but in a careful reading of historical market cycles and the specific dynamics that have governed NFT performance across multiple boom-and-bust periods.
Volume & Floor Dynamics
The NFT market has been a shadow of its former self throughout 2023. After the spectacular collapse of trading volumes from their 2021 peaks — when blue-chip collections like Bored Ape Yacht Club and CryptoPunks commanded floor prices in the hundreds of ETH — the space has struggled to find a sustainable equilibrium. Wash trading has remained a persistent concern, with studies suggesting that a significant portion of NFT transaction volume on certain platforms was artificially inflated.
Helseth predicts that any initial bullish momentum in the broader market may trigger a brief surge in NFT wash-trading activity, creating the illusion of renewed demand. However, he expects this momentum to fizzle out quickly, leaving late entrants holding devalued assets. The pattern is well-documented: NFT volumes tend to spike in the euphoric final stages of a bull market, only to collapse precipitously when sentiment reverses.
Community Sentiment
The cultural cachet that once propelled NFTs into mainstream consciousness — from celebrity endorsements to multimillion-dollar auction house sales — has noticeably faded. Public sentiment has shifted, shaped by painful lessons from the previous cycle where the vast majority of NFT purchases resulted in significant losses. The idea that digital scarcity alone could sustain value has been thoroughly debunked by market reality.
Helseth observes that the typical bull cycle pattern follows a well-worn path: Bitcoin leads the charge, followed by major altcoins like Ethereum, then meme coins, so-called Ethereum-killers, and DeFi tokens. NFTs historically erupt into a frenzy only at the tail end of the cycle — often just before the market turns bearish. This timing makes them particularly treacherous for investors who arrive late to the party.
The historical precedent is instructive. During the 2013 bull market, Bitcoin surged from approximately $145 to over $1,200, establishing a template for subsequent cycles where BTC consistently achieves significant gains before broader market participation expands. Each cycle has seen capital flow outward from Bitcoin into increasingly speculative assets, with NFTs occupying the most speculative tier.
The Next Evolution
This is not to say that the broader NFT concept is permanently discredited. The underlying technology — verifiable digital ownership on a blockchain — retains genuine utility for applications in gaming, ticketing, supply chain verification, and digital identity. What Helseth challenges is the investment thesis that purchasing NFTs as speculative assets during a bull market will generate meaningful returns.
Being on a blockchain, Helseth emphasizes, does not inherently guarantee value appreciation. The market has matured enough to distinguish between technological utility and speculative mania, and the current crop of investors — many of whom were burned in the 2021-2022 cycle — are likely to exercise considerably more caution this time around.
The structural dynamics of the NFT market also present unique challenges. Unlike fungible tokens, which benefit from deep liquidity pools and transparent price discovery on centralized and decentralized exchanges, NFTs are inherently illiquid. Each token is unique, making it difficult to exit positions quickly during a downturn — precisely when liquidity matters most.
Investor Takeaway
For investors positioning themselves for the next bull cycle, the message from K33 Research is unambiguous: focus on assets with proven cyclicality and established market dynamics. Bitcoin and major altcoins have demonstrated consistent patterns across multiple market cycles, offering more predictable risk-reward profiles. The NFT market, by contrast, remains characterized by opacity, illiquidity, and a track record of destroying capital for the majority of participants.
Prudent investment strategy in the coming cycle should prioritize assets with clear fundamentals, robust liquidity, and transparent price discovery mechanisms. If the bull market materializes as many anticipate, the temptation to chase NFT narratives will be strong. Helseth’s advice serves as a valuable counterweight: just because an asset class captured headlines in the last cycle does not mean it will deliver returns in the next one.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments, including NFTs, carry significant risk. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Helseth is spot on. NFT volume went from 17 billion to basically nothing and people still think bored apes are coming back.
the 2021 crowd moved on to ai tokens anyway. same energy, different jpeg
Minji R. volume from 17B to nothing is the clearest graph in crypto history. the PFP era was pure speculation and K33 called it early
stayed away from nfts in 2021, staying away now. some of us learned the first time
floor_watch_ Helseth called the NFT top when BTC was 41k and got called a boomer. then BTC 4xd while BAYC went from 150 ETH to single digits. brutal
K33 said avoid NFTs in Dec 2023 and people mocked them. two years later NFT floors are still down 90% and tokenized real estate is the only use case that survived
Helseth said stay away from NFTs in Dec 2023 when BTC was $41k and people laughed. now BTC is near $100k and NFT floor prices are still down 90% from ATH. guy was right
Helseth said stay away in dec 2023 when BTC was 41k and got laughed at. floor prices still down 90% from ATH. the man was right
Helseth saying stay away from NFTs in Dec 2023 and people called him a boomer. then 2024 and 2025 proved him right. $26B in tokenized real estate is the actual use case
Henrik J. the $26B in tokenized real estate stat is the real story here. PFP jpegs were a distraction from what NFT tech actually enables
NFT volume from 17B to nothing tells you everything you need to know about this market cycle. Helseth called it right back in 2023
^ and the $26B in tokenized real estate proves nft tech has real use cases beyond profile pictures. people just got distracted
tokenized real estate using NFT infrastructure is the actual use case. PFPs were always going to zero. utility wins eventually
Helseth said stay away at 41k BTC and people called him a boomer. NFT floors still down 90% from ATH years later. the man was right
floor_watch_ the $26B tokenized real estate market using NFT infrastructure proves the tech works. PFPs were always a speculative bubble on top of useful plumbing
Anya K. tokenized real estate is the actual use case. PFP jpegs were always speculative wrapper on top of useful infrastructure
K33 published this when BTC was 41k. imagine if you listened and rotated into BTC instead of BAYC floor bids. life changing difference
wagmi_reject_ imagine listening to K33 and rotating to BTC. you would have 4xd instead of holding a worthless monkey
rotate_or_die_ rotating from BAYC to BTC at 41k when K33 published would have been a 4x instead of a 90% loss. the most expensive ignoring of advice in crypto history
Helseth called the NFT top in Dec 2023 when BTC was 41k. guy got ignored because everyone wanted their jpeg to be worth something
BAYC floor went from 150 ETH to single digits. K33 was right and the community still mocks them. classic cope
jpeg_obit_ BAYC from 150 ETH to single digits is the kind of stat that should be in every crypto textbook next to the tulip section
Helseth published this when everyone was still bidding floors. took actual professional courage to say avoid NFTs in December 2023