3 Billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expire as Crypto Market Hits Extreme Fear

The Numbers Unpacked

On February 13, 2026, the cryptocurrency market braces for one of the largest options expiry events of the year. Over 3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives contracts expire on Deribit, creating a perfect storm of volatility at a time when investor sentiment already sits at historic lows.

Bitcoin options account for the lion’s share of the event, with approximately 30,012 BTC contracts set to settle — including 18,920 calls and 11,092 puts. The notional value reaches roughly 2 billion at current prices. The put/call ratio of 0.59 signals that more traders positioned for upside exposure, but the gap between calls and puts narrows considerably when compared to previous months.

Ethereum adds another 205,585 contracts to the mix, worth approximately 404.5 million. ETH options show a put/call ratio of 0.75 — slightly more bullish than Bitcoin — with 117,410 calls versus 88,175 puts. The data reveals that despite the prevailing fear, options traders maintain a structurally bullish bias heading into expiry.

Historical Context

Bitcoin currently trades at 66,887, caught in a descending channel that formed after late-January turbulence rattled global markets. On-chain analyst Ali Martinez identifies the key range as 64,000 support and 67,000 resistance — a tight band that options expiry could easily break in either direction.

The max pain price for Bitcoin sits at 70,000, roughly 4.6% above the current spot price. For Ethereum, max pain is 2,050 while ETH trades near 1,955. Market makers have a natural incentive to push prices toward these max pain levels by expiry, which historically creates short-term gravitational pull.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index registers at 9 out of 100 — deep in Extreme Fear territory, though modestly improved from 5 the day prior. This reading represents one of the lowest sentiment scores in over a year.

Expert Consensus

Macro headwinds compound the options pressure. U.S. equity indices fell more than 1% across the board on February 12, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2% as investor concerns over AI disrupting traditional business models intensified. Spot silver plunged more than 10%, gold dropped over 3%, and U.S. Treasuries rallied — a clear risk-off rotation across asset classes.

January CPI data released this week came in at +0.2% month-over-month and +2.4% year-over-year, with core CPI at +0.3%. The data signals persistent inflation pressure, complicating the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook and adding another layer of uncertainty for risk assets like crypto.

Market analysts note that compared to previous large expiries, the market has historically seen post-expiry rallies. Following the prior week’s 3 billion expiry, Bitcoin rose nearly 4% to 69,395 while Ethereum gained around 5.4% to reach close to 2,060. The historical pattern suggests that large expiries can act as catalysts rather than purely bearish events.

Forward Outlook

Traders should watch three critical levels in the aftermath of expiry. For Bitcoin, a break above 67,000 resistance could trigger a short squeeze toward the 70,000 max pain zone, especially given the elevated call positioning. Conversely, a loss of 64,000 support opens the door to the low 60,000s, where stronger buyer clusters exist on chain.

Ethereum’s path depends partly on the broader DeFi narrative. The launch of eSui Dollar by Ethena Labs on the Sui blockchain this week signals continued innovation in the stablecoin space, which could support ETH indirectly if liquidity flows rotate across ecosystems.

The combination of extreme fear readings, large options expiry, and deteriorating macro conditions creates a high-variance environment. Position sizing and risk management remain paramount — this is not a market for leveraged conviction trades.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.