The Numbers Unpacked
On February 13, 2026, the cryptocurrency market braces for one of the largest options expiry events of the year. Over 3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives contracts expire on Deribit, creating a perfect storm of volatility at a time when investor sentiment already sits at historic lows.
Bitcoin options account for the lion’s share of the event, with approximately 30,012 BTC contracts set to settle — including 18,920 calls and 11,092 puts. The notional value reaches roughly 2 billion at current prices. The put/call ratio of 0.59 signals that more traders positioned for upside exposure, but the gap between calls and puts narrows considerably when compared to previous months.
Ethereum adds another 205,585 contracts to the mix, worth approximately 404.5 million. ETH options show a put/call ratio of 0.75 — slightly more bullish than Bitcoin — with 117,410 calls versus 88,175 puts. The data reveals that despite the prevailing fear, options traders maintain a structurally bullish bias heading into expiry.
Historical Context
Bitcoin currently trades at 66,887, caught in a descending channel that formed after late-January turbulence rattled global markets. On-chain analyst Ali Martinez identifies the key range as 64,000 support and 67,000 resistance — a tight band that options expiry could easily break in either direction.
The max pain price for Bitcoin sits at 70,000, roughly 4.6% above the current spot price. For Ethereum, max pain is 2,050 while ETH trades near 1,955. Market makers have a natural incentive to push prices toward these max pain levels by expiry, which historically creates short-term gravitational pull.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index registers at 9 out of 100 — deep in Extreme Fear territory, though modestly improved from 5 the day prior. This reading represents one of the lowest sentiment scores in over a year.
Expert Consensus
Macro headwinds compound the options pressure. U.S. equity indices fell more than 1% across the board on February 12, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2% as investor concerns over AI disrupting traditional business models intensified. Spot silver plunged more than 10%, gold dropped over 3%, and U.S. Treasuries rallied — a clear risk-off rotation across asset classes.
January CPI data released this week came in at +0.2% month-over-month and +2.4% year-over-year, with core CPI at +0.3%. The data signals persistent inflation pressure, complicating the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook and adding another layer of uncertainty for risk assets like crypto.
Market analysts note that compared to previous large expiries, the market has historically seen post-expiry rallies. Following the prior week’s 3 billion expiry, Bitcoin rose nearly 4% to 69,395 while Ethereum gained around 5.4% to reach close to 2,060. The historical pattern suggests that large expiries can act as catalysts rather than purely bearish events.
Forward Outlook
Traders should watch three critical levels in the aftermath of expiry. For Bitcoin, a break above 67,000 resistance could trigger a short squeeze toward the 70,000 max pain zone, especially given the elevated call positioning. Conversely, a loss of 64,000 support opens the door to the low 60,000s, where stronger buyer clusters exist on chain.
Ethereum’s path depends partly on the broader DeFi narrative. The launch of eSui Dollar by Ethena Labs on the Sui blockchain this week signals continued innovation in the stablecoin space, which could support ETH indirectly if liquidity flows rotate across ecosystems.
The combination of extreme fear readings, large options expiry, and deteriorating macro conditions creates a high-variance environment. Position sizing and risk management remain paramount — this is not a market for leveraged conviction trades.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
3B notional expiring into max fear. either the biggest gamma squeeze of the year or another leg down. no in between
3B notional expiring same day as extreme fear prints. either the calls pin the price up or they all expire worthless and we dump. no middle ground on this one
put/call ratio of 0.59 during extreme fear is actually bullish sentiment. market was positioned for upside and still got washed out
kvester_ calls outweigh puts but the gap narrowed from previous months. smart money was already de-risking before expiry
3B notional expiring on the same day extreme fear prints. either the calls pin price up or they expire worthless and the cascade starts
3 billion notional on Deribit and BTC holding 66.8K. any other expiry this size would have triggered a volatility event but the market just absorbed it
eth put call at 0.75 while btc sits at 0.59. eth traders always price in less fear for some reason even when both read the same macro
3B notional on a single expiry while fear gauge prints max bearish. either the biggest gamma event of Q1 or a nothingburger. options expiry is always binary like that
30k BTC and 205k ETH contracts expiring same day with fear at max. deribit basically owns crypto vol now
The halving cycle is playing out exactly as expected
30k btc options expiring with 18.9k of them being calls. someone is going to be very wrong very soon
0xput_ 18.9k calls expiring means a LOT of people are long and wrong if we dont bounce from here
gamma_squeeze_ 18.9k calls vs 11k puts. if we dont bounce a lot of those calls expire worthless and the gamma selling accelerates
max_pain_ gamma selling into 18.9k calls during extreme fear is either gonna squeeze or flush. no in between with that setup
max_pain_ gamma selling into expiry with that many calls ITM would be brutal. market makers hedging 18.9k calls of upside into a fearful tape, recipe for a flush
Theta_Rider_ gamma selling into 18.9k calls ITM during max fear is the flush setup. market makers dont hedge charity into a fearful tape
max_pain_ 18.9k calls ITM during extreme fear is the squeeze setup. market makers hedging all that upside into a fearful tape either pins price up or triggers a flush. no middle ground
max_pain_ 18.9k calls going ITM during extreme fear is the squeeze fuel. dealers short gamma have to buy the rip
BTC dominance rising means the real move hasn’t started yet
put/call ratio at 0.59 with extreme fear readings is the classic setup. majority positioned for upside but too scared to hold spot
Dmitri S. 0.59 put/call with extreme fear is the textbook contrarian signal. problem is contrarian signals can stay wrong for weeks
Dmitri S. the fear gauge being max bearish while put/call is skewed bullish is the most contrarian setup possible. someone is getting chopped up
Dmitri S. put/call at 0.59 with extreme fear is the classic contrarian tell. majority long calls into a fearful market always ends messy
put call at 0.59 with extreme fear and 205k ETH options at 0.75. ETH traders are always less scared for some reason. both reading same macro but pricing completely different outcomes
Supply shock is real — exchange reserves keep dropping
205k ETH options with a 0.75 put/call ratio. eth traders are less scared than btc traders despite the same macro environment
30k BTC options and 205k ETH options expiring same day. Deribit really just hosts the entire crypto derivatives calendar at this point