Deep Dive Analysis
Internet Computer (ICP)
2026-07-27 09:18 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
2.17
2.17
52W HIGH
15.56
15.56
DRAWDOWN
-86.0%
-86.0%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 1 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, far below high
ICP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 5.09
Low: 1.98
Now: 2.17
Low: 1.98
Now: 2.17
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 46.8 | ADX (14) | 9.6 |
| 50d MA | 2.23 | 200d MA | 2.56 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 2.07 | Resistance | 2.39 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.64%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ICP | -2.3% | -18.8% | -15.4% | -57.4% |
| BTC | +1.7% | -15.7% | -8.6% | -29.9% |
| ETH | +9.4% | -6.9% | -10.8% | -37.1% |
| SOL | -6.9% | -10.3% | -15.4% | -45.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
16,509
RETURN
-52.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-53.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ICP | -52.8% | -70.6% | -53.6% | 52 | 36% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ICP)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -57.4% | 13,775 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -34.4% | 22,947 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -36.9% | 22,068 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -29.1% | 24,820 |
ICP Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 2.01 (-7.3%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (-7.9%) |
| Target 2 | 3.00 (38.2%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-12 | BUY | 3.18 | |
| 2026-05-13 | SELL | 3.03 | -4.7% |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 2.80 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 2.61 | -6.7% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 2.59 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 2.54 | -1.9% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 2.59 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 2.47 | -4.6% |
| 2026-05-25 | BUY | 2.67 | |
| 2026-05-26 | SELL | 2.65 | -1.0% |
| 2026-06-03 | BUY | 3.11 | |
| 2026-06-04 | SELL | 2.72 | -12.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-27 09:18 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
86% drawdown and they still have believers holding bags. saw the same thing with algo in 2022, everyone calling the bottom at -80% then it kept going
nikola_d_ 86% drawdown and people still holding. the thing about -80% bags is they always find a way to go deeper
86% drawdown from the 52w high and theyre still calling it AVOID not SELL. feels generous tbh
noma_squawk_ the backtest shows -52.8% with the strategy vs -70.6% buy and hold. so the system actually saved you from the worst of it. the AVOID call is consistent with the data
MACD bullish but everything else is screaming sell. one green signal against six red ones doesnt sound like conviction to me
@Yumi exactly, i see people on ct cherry picking that macd cross like it means something. price is below both 50d and 200d, the trend is your friend here and the friend is saying run
Yumi K. MACD bullish crossover against a downtrend that has price below both major MAs is textbook cope. one green signal in a sea of red
cope is the right word. and the 2.17 is cheap crowd keeps learning that cheap alone aint a strategy. plenty bought the bottom at 8
the 2.17 crowd and the crowd that bought 8 are the same people at different points of the same bag. cheap without a catalyst is just a number going down slowly
macd lags by construction. on an asset down 86% its just dead cat bounce residue. one green line vs the entire trend, easy call
DCA with 12 buys at -29.1% still beat lump sum at -57.4%. wild that spreading buys over a year still lost nearly a third
DCA at -29.1% still losing nearly a third of your money tells you everything about ICP. even the disciplined approach got wrecked
86% drawdown from 15.56 and people in the comments are still debating whether the MACD cross means something. it doesnt. ICP has been a one way elevator down since launch
downtrend_kep_ the 35000 portfolio backtest showing -52.8% with active management vs -70.6% buy and hold is actually a strong argument for the system. you still lost but you lost less
-52.8% with active management vs -70.6% holding is the definition of winning ugly. the strategy saved 18 points and still lost half the portfolio
DCA strategy with 12 entries still -29.1%. imagine dollar cost averaging into a token that has done nothing but bleed since the airdrop. the system correctly says AVOID and the data backs it
86 percent drawdown from 15.56 to 2.17 and the AVOID rating is generous. the MACD bullish crossover is meaningless when price is below both 50d and 200d
86% drawdown from 15.56 and the analysis still says AVOID not STRONG SELL. the system is being generous
AVOID is generous for a token that went 15.56 to 2.17 and never bounced. system is being polite because STRONG SELL sounds mean i guess
DCA strategy with 12 buys and still down 29.1 percent. proves that disciplined accumulation doesnt help when the underlying is in a structural downtrend
DCA into a token down 86% from ATH and still -29% on 12 entries. averaging down on ICP has been financial waterboarding
12 entries, -29%, and the comment section still argues about indicators. the only signal that ever mattered for ICP was token unlocks and insider flow
12 dcas and still down 29%. the backtest lost 52.8% with management and people in here argue about the macd cross. icp is a lesson in sunken cost, not analysis
sunken cost is the right frame. the system printed AVOID for months and the comments argued indicators the whole way down. thats not analysis, its grieving
the 35k backtest losing 52.8 percent with active management is the most honest part of the piece. the system didnt save you, it billed you less for the same shipwreck