Deep Dive Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE)
2026-07-20 17:06 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.07
0.07
52W HIGH
0.48
0.48
DRAWDOWN
-84.9%
-84.9%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 2 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.15)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (41.5), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 32.7)
DOGE Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.17
Low: 0.07
Now: 0.07
Low: 0.07
Now: 0.07
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 41.5 | ADX (14) | 32.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.08 | 200d MA | 0.10 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.07 | Resistance | 0.08 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.43%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| DOGE | -0.1% | -30.0% | -21.2% | -57.4% |
| BTC | +7.0% | -16.3% | -8.3% | -37.5% |
| ETH | +15.9% | -12.3% | -9.0% | -45.3% |
| SOL | +1.5% | -10.8% | -12.1% | -50.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
21,652
RETURN
-38.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-61.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| DOGE | -38.1% | -71.4% | -61.4% | 45 | 40% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (DOGE)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -57.4% | 9,431 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -50.7% | 17,250 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -50.5% | 17,336 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -45.2% | 19,187 |
DOGE Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.07 (-6.9%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 0.12 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 0.11 | -1.7% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 0.11 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 0.11 | -0.5% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.10 | -1.7% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 0.11 | +1.9% |
| 2026-05-22 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-23 | SELL | 0.10 | +0.7% |
| 2026-05-24 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-25 | SELL | 0.10 | -0.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-20 17:06 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
targets literally say 0.00 with -100% return. even the engine gave up trying to find upside lmao
from $0.48 to $0.07 lmao. every time someone says doge is going to $1 i lose another year of my life
been saying this since the elon snl pump. doge has no fundamentals, just vibes and a billionaires twitter account
RSI at 41.5 isnt even oversold territory yet. this could drop another 20% before any bounce
35k portfolio allocating 5k to doge in a downtrend is wild. conservative institutional style my ass Oliver
adx 32.7 is stronger trend than most s&p 500 stocks lol. except its trending to zero
45 trades in the backtest with 40% win rate. system barely outperformed doing nothing, just with more fees
from 0.48 to 0.07. rip to everyone who aped the elon snl top