Deep Dive Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE)
2026-07-20 17:06 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.07
0.07
52W HIGH
0.48
0.48
DRAWDOWN
-84.9%
-84.9%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 2 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.15)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (41.5), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 32.7)
DOGE Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.17
Low: 0.07
Now: 0.07
Low: 0.07
Now: 0.07
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 41.5 | ADX (14) | 32.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.08 | 200d MA | 0.10 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.07 | Resistance | 0.08 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.43%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| DOGE | -0.1% | -30.0% | -21.2% | -57.4% |
| BTC | +7.0% | -16.3% | -8.3% | -37.5% |
| ETH | +15.9% | -12.3% | -9.0% | -45.3% |
| SOL | +1.5% | -10.8% | -12.1% | -50.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
21,652
RETURN
-38.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-61.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| DOGE | -38.1% | -71.4% | -61.4% | 45 | 40% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (DOGE)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -57.4% | 9,431 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -50.7% | 17,250 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -50.5% | 17,336 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -45.2% | 19,187 |
DOGE Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.07 (-6.9%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 0.12 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 0.11 | -1.7% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 0.11 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 0.11 | -0.5% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.10 | -1.7% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 0.11 | +1.9% |
| 2026-05-22 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-23 | SELL | 0.10 | +0.7% |
| 2026-05-24 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-25 | SELL | 0.10 | -0.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-20 17:06 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
targets literally say 0.00 with -100% return. even the engine gave up trying to find upside lmao
meme_div_econ_ the analysis engine literally computed -100% return as the target. even the model gave up on finding upside
from $0.48 to $0.07 lmao. every time someone says doge is going to $1 i lose another year of my life
been saying this since the elon snl pump. doge has no fundamentals, just vibes and a billionaires twitter account
RSI at 41.5 isnt even oversold territory yet. this could drop another 20% before any bounce
35k portfolio allocating 5k to doge in a downtrend is wild. conservative institutional style my ass Oliver
Henrik V. 35k portfolio putting 5k into DOGE during an ADX 32.7 downtrend. conservative my ass
adx 32.7 is stronger trend than most s&p 500 stocks lol. except its trending to zero
45 trades in the backtest with 40% win rate. system barely outperformed doing nothing, just with more fees
from 0.48 to 0.07. rip to everyone who aped the elon snl top
ADX at 32.7 on a meme coin with no fundamentals. the trend is literally your friend until the trend is to zero
doge_obit_ Oliver allocating 5k of a 35k portfolio to a DOGE short with these numbers is the most convincing part of the report honestly
Cyril P. 5k out of 35k on a DOGE short is reasonable position sizing honestly. the report could say 100 percent short and it still wouldnt move the needle on a coin with this much retail liquidity
a price target of 0.00 on doge is technically correct and completely useless. infinite supply faucet plus infinite elon supply means it never actually zeros. the sell call is right, the model is theater
a zero target on a coin that survived three cycles on vibes is pointless. sell the rallies sure but 0.00 aint happening while elon has a phone
the elon phone point is real. every doge short thesis has a hidden line that reads assume he stays quiet, and that line has never once held
the assume he stays quiet line is undefeated comedy. one reply guy with 200m followers ends any doge thesis in 9 seconds flat
40 percent win rate across 45 trades and they called it a system. my grandma picks stocks with better accuracy and she doesnt charge for a report
Dimitri S. the 5k DOGE short out of 35k total is the only part that makes sense. small position on a meme coin short is just smart risk management not a thesis
The 5k short is fine until doge does what doge does and rips 40 percent on one elon reply. sizing is the only variable you control on a meme coin, the thesis never survives contact with his timeline
the 5k short sizing is the only defensible part of a SELL call on doge. one elon emoji and funding flips, you cover at a loss and the thesis is somehow still intact lol
45 trades with 40 percent win rate and the system is supposed to be sophisticated. youd get similar returns flipping a coin with less stress and zero trading fees
0.07 against a 52w high of 0.48 and the brave call is SELL. -85 percent already happened, risk reward on fresh shorts down here is rough even if the trend stays down
agreed, shorting after an 85 percent drawdown is congratulating yourself at the funeral. even the stage 4 label reads like a formality at 0.07