Deep Dive Analysis
Toncoin (TON)
2026-07-23 09:41 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
32.02
32.02
DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
-100.0%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 6 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (50.4), rising 1m & 3m, vol 20.0x on up day
Bearish factors: price < 50d, far below high
TON Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 50.4 | ADX (14) | 15.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.93%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| TON | +2.0% | +19.3% | +66.0% | -22.0% |
| BTC | +6.6% | -15.4% | -7.9% | -30.5% |
| ETH | +13.2% | -9.8% | -8.4% | -38.1% |
| SOL | -4.1% | -11.3% | -12.2% | -44.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
0
RETURN
-100.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| TON | -100.0% | -94.2% | -100.0% | 51 | 26% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (TON)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -22.0% | 56 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -24.0% | 11,401 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -8.6% | 13,713 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -5.2% | 14,227 |
TON Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-3.9%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-27 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-28 | SELL | 0.01 | -1.1% |
| 2026-06-01 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-06-02 | SELL | 0.01 | -3.0% |
| 2026-06-04 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-06-23 | SELL | 0.01 | -8.9% |
| 2026-07-02 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-08 | SELL | 0.01 | -0.6% |
| 2026-07-10 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-13 | SELL | 0.01 | -1.4% |
| 2026-07-14 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-16 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-23 09:41 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
price literally shows 0.01 with -100% drawdown and they still put HOLD on it? what does SELL look like then
@Pavel the system says 6 bull factors vs 2 bear. golden cross and 200d above. its a contrarian HOLD not a conviction one
bought TON near $28 because of the Telegram integration hype. this is what happens when you marry your bags
51 trades with 26% win rate and -100% strategy return. this backtest is basically a cautionary tale for anyone trying to trend-follow a coin that went to essentially zero
the DCA 12 buys returning -5.2% vs lump sum at -22% is the only useful takeaway here. never lump sum a falling knife